Market Moves
So Interest Rates Won’t Rise Anymore, Eh? Not So Fast
Lombard’s Blitz makes the case for why the Fed will keep hiking, all the way up to 6.5%.
Tag: Unemployment
Research
Is the Phillips Curve Kaput? No, But It Has Changed, Says BCA Sage
The classic trade-off between unemployment and inflation isn’t the same due to the Federal Reserve, in Peter Berezin’s view.
Risk
Junk Bond Defaults Are Rising, Despite Healthy-Seeming Economy, S&P Says
Distress in the high-yield market often is a sign of pending trouble. But economists are backing off of their recession forecasts.
Market Moves
Inverted Yield Curve Nears Its First Birthday—and There’s No Recession
Some strategists say pandemic spending and other factors have severed the historic sequence.
Research
Bernanke: 4.3% Jobless Rate Needed to Get Inflation Back to Pre-Pandemic Level
Former Fed chief puts a number on the level of employment-related pain needed to hit price-rise target.
Risk
So When Will This Recession Arrive, Anyway?
A lot of the Wall Street commentariat doesn’t believe we’ll get the much-feared downturn.
Risk
What It Would Take for Powell to Get His Soft Landing
Former New York Fed head Dudley thinks the central bank’s quest is doomed. Is he right?
OK, When Will the Fed Begin Shrinking Its Bond Buying, Anyway?
Split views seen in FOMC minutes are vexing. So let’s hear what Wall Street strategists think.
Market Moves
Why the Fed Won’t Tighten Soon: Too Much Unemployment, Says Strategist
The high jobless level counters any push to curb central bank stimulus, argues Commonwealth’s McMillan.
Market Moves
Will Pent-Up Consumer Demand Really Supercharge the Economy? Uh-uh, Economist Warns
Stephen Roach: A lot of consumer spending already has occurred and the federal aid package will be just a temporary boost.
Economic Recovery Backslides Due to COVID Resurgence
‘The economy goes as the virus transmission goes,’ says S&P Global Ratings.
Market Moves
How to Take Advantage of the Coming Market Surge
When the economy drops as much as it has, history shows a powerful stock bull run is forming, says Leuthold’s Paulsen.
Market Moves
Remember Those Rate Increases? Big Mistake, Two Fed Governors Now Say
Richard Clarida and Lael Brainard say economic growth would have been stronger without the 2015-18 hikes.
Research
Will Last Week’s Selloff Wake Up Investors to the Overvalued Market? El-Erian Asks
Allianz sage spells out the difference between lowered fundamentals, like earnings, and the current rally.
Coronavirus - COVID-19
Drag on Economy: The ‘Temporarily Laid Off’ Who Become Permanent
Goldman Sachs warns that a big swatch of the jobless will end up staying that way.