Risk
Yield Curve Will Right Itself, Finally, but Not Until Year-End, Experts Say
Next question: What happened to the inverted arc’s role as a recession portent?
Tag: Two-year Treasury
Research
When Will Interest Rates Fall and by How Much?
UBS analysts think the Fed will need 6 months or so to realize it can ease, gradually slicing the central bank’s benchmark by a modest amount, up to 0.75 points.
Risk
Forget Any Fed Pivot, Says JPM’s Gross
The bond and futures markets believe the central bank’s tightening will about-face—a bad call, the strategist contends.
Risk
Look Out: Treasury Volatility May Not Be Over
Ongoing worries, such as the debt-limit clash, could bring it roaring back, warns Bank of America.
Risk
Should We Even Care If the Yield Curve Inverts?
It’s a classic recession portent. But inversion’s predictive record is spotty.
Risk
Spreads Are Narrowing: Could We Get (Gulp) an Inverted Yield Curve?
With short rates climbing faster than long ones, this recession harbinger isn’t out of the question.