Risk
Yield Curve Will Right Itself, Finally, but Not Until Year-End, Experts Say
Next question: What happened to the inverted arc’s role as a recession portent?
Tag: Inverted Yield Curve
Asset Allocation
Congress Looks to Cut Deficits Amid High Interest Rates
High U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio and political uncertainty are among factors driving 10-year Treasury yields to 16-year highs.
Market Moves
What Will Fed’s Reaction Be to Sharp Inflation Fall?
No additional rate hikes, one more, two more? Strategists ponder what comes next after the CPI news.
Market Moves
Inverted Yield Curve Nears Its First Birthday—and There’s No Recession
Some strategists say pandemic spending and other factors have severed the historic sequence.
Risk
Data Tells the Story: Jitters Along the Curve
Three-month T-bills are yielding more than the five-year Treasury.
Risk
Look Out: Treasury Volatility May Not Be Over
Ongoing worries, such as the debt-limit clash, could bring it roaring back, warns Bank of America.
Market Moves
Inverted Yield Curve Passes Danger Line
With the spread between short and long rates upside down for more than 15 straight trading days, that portends a recession for sure by August, Bespoke warns.
Asset Allocation
Did You Enjoy the July Rally? Too Bad It Was Temporary
Inflation, Fed rate hikes and an inverted yield curve are all undermining what seems like a new bull market, says Comerica’s Lynch.
Risk
Should We Even Care If the Yield Curve Inverts?
It’s a classic recession portent. But inversion’s predictive record is spotty.
Risk
Maybe an Inverted Yield Curve Isn’t an Ill Portent
The Fed has distorted the Treasury landscape, says a Bernstein savant. Without its bond buying, the 10-year would be yielding 3.7%.
Risk
Spreads Are Narrowing: Could We Get (Gulp) an Inverted Yield Curve?
With short rates climbing faster than long ones, this recession harbinger isn’t out of the question.
Here’s Why Stocks Seem Set for a Mediocre 2020, if Not Worse
A so-so economy, low earnings growth, an un-inverted yield curve, and a stand-pat Fed are part of the mix for a ho-hum year.
Market Moves
S&P 500 Dividend Yield Surmounts the 30-Year Treasury
The last time that happened was during the financial crisis, Bespoke says.
Market Moves
Pay No Attention to the Inverted Yield Curve, Some Economists Say
Shiller, Yardeni, Yellen, and El-Erian trash this feared recession signal as off-base nowadays.
Market Moves
US Negative Interest Rates Would Be a Disaster, El-Erian Warns
Allianz economist notes decline of yields and worries they might crop up in America.