Data Tells the Story: Jitters Along the Curve
Economic data roils, the federal debt ceiling deadline looms and the Fed continues to raise rates and recession fears. The yield curve inversion shows that investors have more faith in U.S. credit long term, than they do short term.
The data shows the 3-month Treasury this week yielding 163 basis points more than the 5-year, a record spread.
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
Indicates U.S. recessions
Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 3-Month Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
Indicates U.S. recessions
Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 3-Month Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 3-Month Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Indicates U.S. recessions
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 3-Month Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Indicates U.S. recessions
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)