RiskApril 12, 2019

Goldman Puts Number on Odds of a Recession: Just 10%

Wall Street firm credits the Fed’s about-face for sunnier view.

Reported by Larry Light

Not long ago, predictions were rife about a recession landing this year or next. Goldman Sachs has actually pinpointed the odds on a recession happening over the next 12 months—at a mere 10%.

The reason: The Federal Reserve, under Chairman Jerome Powell, has indicated it will suspend its program of raising interest rates, and also end its unwinding of its vast trove of long-term bonds, in September.

“The Fed’s dovish shift was likely designed to decrease downside risks, and our findings suggest that this has largely worked as planned,” Goldman analysts wrote in a research note. “As the lingering effects of the Q4 tightening gradually fade away, the Fed may eventually be willing to revisit the need for patience, as indicated in the January minutes.”

Previously, in January, Goldman put the chances of a recession at 20%. Lately, the firm’s own financial conditions index has risen, adding to its optimism.

Among company chief financial officers (CFOs), 75% expect an economic downturn next year, but just 15% think it will develop into a full-blown recession, according to a survey by professional services firm Deloitte.

And the doom chorus predicting an imminent recession has diminished. For instance, hedge fund operator Ray Dalio, citing the Fed’s decision to stand down on rate boosts, last month reversed his position that a recession was poised to hit.