Worldwide Pension Funds Rebounded in 2023, but Failed to Make Up for 2022’s Wipeout

An OECD study concluded that last year’s progress did not bring funds back to year-end 2021 levels.

Pension fund assets worldwide staged a comeback in 2023, according to an Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development report. But that only partly offset pension plan asset losses from 2022, when inflation and interest rate hikes, along with fears of economic downturn, soured returns.

Total assets globally (all assets in the countries studied) remained 7% lower last year than at the end of 2021.

U.S. retirement plans at year-end 2023 were still 4.4% below their level from the end of 2021, a strong market year based on recovery from lifted pandemic lockdowns. The U.S. pension asset total for last year was $38.8 trillion.

The funds with investment portfolios (including both governmental and corporate-sponsored plans, as opposed to pay-as-you-go approaches like the U.S.’s Social Security system), benefited in 2023 from rate cuts or the prospects of them, as well as slowing inflation, the report explained.

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In the study, the OECD, the 38-nation organization committed to democracy and free markets, focused on its own membership and 33 non-members, such as India and Brazil. (The U.S. is the largest member, in terms of assets; China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are not members and were not included in the study.)

Indeed, stocks worldwide made a good comeback in 2023, with the equity benchmark, the MSCI All Country World Index, rising 22.2% after falling 18.3% in 2022. But many pension funds own a lot of bonds, so the performance of the Bloomberg Global-Aggregate Total Return Index—which slid 16.3% in 2022 and moved back up only 5.8% in 2023—was a drag on portfolios overall. In the U.S., for instance, total assets shrank 12.8% in 2022 and rose just 10% in 2023.

Last year, only five of the 71 nations in the survey faced asset declines, notably the U.K., which was down 3% due to a decrease in the value of its bond holdings. One beneficial trend was an increase in nations requiring participation in pension plans, which happened in Greece and Georgia; issuing new automatic enrollment mandates, seen in Poland and Turkey; and expanding access to plans by relaxing eligibility requirements, as in Australia and Norway.

The 2023 investment gains were spurred by cuts in interest rates, such as in Chile, or expectations for reductions, as in the U.S. The returns exceeded the inflation rate in most of the nations studied. Last year, Poland logged the biggest gain, with 30.2%, easily making up for its 16.1% drop in 2022; the surge in 2023 came thanks to its outsized allocation to equities, more than 90%. The U.S. had roughly 35% in stocks.

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Industry Feedback on the IB 95-1 Report

The report does hint at where future DOL priorities might be on PRTs.

The Department of Labor’s report on Interpretative Bulletin 95-1, issued early this week, did not make any definitive recommendations or conclusions. However, some experts say the report still contains insight into where the DOL might engage in rulemaking on pension risk transfers in the future.

The SECURE 2.0 Act of 2022 required the DOL, in consultation with the ERISA Advisory Council, a volunteer body of 15 subject matter experts that advise the DOL, to publish a report on possible updates to IB 95-1 by the end of 2023. That bulletin provides regulatory guidance from the DOL outlining the factors fiduciaries should consider when selecting a PRT provider to be sure it is a prudent choice.

The report noted that certain issues within the PRT marketplace were brought to the council’s attention, such as the role of private equity ownership, offshore re-insurance, administrative capacity, and riskier investment profiles, among other items, as deserving of further research and analysis. The report did not recommend any policy changes or designate any issues as being particularly concerning.

What the Report Didn’t Say

James Walton, a managing director at Agilis, agrees that “there weren’t a lot of conclusions” in the report, which primarily summarized a two-day public hearing hosted by the council in July 2023.

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Walton explains that “the DOL recognized the complexity of the issues” in choosing to not reach any conclusions, apart from that further study would be helpful. He adds that if the report had made any clear recommendations, it would have likely influenced fiduciary PRT decisions even though neither it nor IB 95-1 itself have the force of law: “small nudges could shift the market towards seeing one provider as safe or not safe, and that can impact a large number of transactions.”

Despite this, the report did “open the door to future changes,” and pointed to some “issues that warrant further attention,” Walton says.

Kendra Isaacson, a principal at Mindset, and a former Senate staffer who worked on SECURE 2.0, agrees with that sentiment of future rulemaking, and says industry watchers should “read between the lines” of the report, which does “hint at areas they want to study further.”

Joe Anzalone, a managing director at Agilis says that administrative capacity should be considered by fiduciaries when selecting a PRT provider, and that this factor is “hard to shoe it into one of the six criteria and is probably something worth considering” in a potential update to IB 95-1.

When an insurance company takes over a pension in a PRT, it is essential that they have the ability to take on monthly checks and customer service functions; so a later update in this area may be possible.

Not everyone thinks further study should lead to any shifts, however.

Little if anything has to be changed in IB 95-1, says Preston Rutledge, former Assistant Secretary of Labor for the Employee Benefits Security Administration and consultant to the American Council of Life Insurers: “The DOL was thoughtful, methodical, and made the correct decision to not modify the current risk transfer guidance which, because it is principles-based, continues to work well.  The department also got it right when they indicated that any future guidance would remain principles-based and would only be issued following notice and public comment.”

Why the ERISA Advisory Council?

The inclusion of the advisory council likely influenced the DOL’s thinking and response, but its participation was not a foregone conclusion.

Mindset’s Isaacson explains that Section 321 of SECURE 2.0, the section that required this report, was primarily in response to concern about the role of private equity ownership in the life insurance industry. She says that Republicans in Congress supported a study to explore an update to IB 95-1 “as long as the advisory council could participate.”

The council is staffed by members of different parties and viewpoints serving on a volunteer basis, and always has one member on it representing the interests of the insurance industry.

“Some members of industry felt targeted by the study,” and required the council to participate, the first time ever that Congress has required it to do a specific task. This was a compromise to get the report into the legislation at all, Isaacson recalls.

Rutledge says that “consultation with the advisory council was entirely appropriate given that the statutory duties of the council are to advise the Secretary and submit recommendations regarding the Secretary’s functions under ERISA.”

Currently, the insurance representative is Alice Palmer of Lincoln Financial Group. Lincoln Financial Group declined to comment.

Impact on PRT Litigation

Jerry Schlichter, founding and managing partner at the Schlichter Bogard law firm, which has recently brought several PRT-related lawsuits in federal courts, says that the report “certainly reflects the concerns of annuitants.”

He argues that the report is a sign that private equity ownership of PRT providers “is a concern at DOL” because of the conflicts of interest that can arise in the opaque world of private assets, as well as in business models that often invest with shorter time horizons than the retirement investors they are charged with insuring.

Schlichter also notes that the report cites a study from Aon which says “plan fiduciaries chose the lowest cost annuity in 78% of transactions,” which could suggest that “the chief driver of annuity selections is cost, rather than a rigorous process aimed at choosing the safest available annuity.”

While the report might not have an immediate impact on PRT litigation, “it shows the continuing serious concern that DOL has to these transactions,” Schlichter says.

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