Utilities and Transport are Top Infrastructure Picks for 2014/5

Investors have flooded towards regulated utilities and transport assets in safe haven markets, according to research from Deloitte.

(November 25, 2013) — Core assets, such as regulated utilities and transport, in developed markets are set to dominate investors’ infrastructure portfolios for the next two years, according to Deloitte.

The business advisory firm interviewed 22 funds and direct investors representing 50% of London’s infrastructure investor community, and found energy and water distribution plants will continue to be popular over the next 24 months.

The survey also showed investors preferred to put their money into “safe haven” countries, such as the UK, Germany, and Scandinavia, and are now shying away from infrastructure assets in emerging markets such as China and India.

European pension funds have led the way in this space. PensionDenmark agreed an historic deal earlier this month with an Abu Dhabi-based energy company to acquire 40% of a Dutch gas pipeline system for $240 million.

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Elsewhere in Denmark, ATP and PFA Pension partnered with investment bank Goldman Sachs to boost share capital in local energy giant DONG.

Deloitte’s report found returns for the assets remained strong in 2013 with 70% of infrastructure investors are achieving or exceeding targeted internal rates of return.

David Scott, partner in Deloitte’s infrastructure M&A team, said: “The key to funds’ strong performance in recent years has been a significant investment of resource in dedicated asset management teams as they look to improve their performance through value enhancement.”

Indeed, 41% of infrastructure funds told Deloitte they had recruited dedicated asset management teams, typically comprising more than a third of their total workforce, showing a trend towards boosting internal expertise.

There were some concerns on the horizon however. Jason Clatworthy, partner in Deloitte’s infrastructure M&A team, warned that while Western Europe, North American, and Australasian assets were likely to prove popular for the short term, there was a growing problem around the lack of new assets coming to market.

And Scott noted the regulatory and political risks surrounding these investments continued to worry investors.

“These have become harder to navigate in the past few years and the expectation is for regulatory regimes, especially in Europe, to become more challenging to predict in the coming years,” he said.

“Infrastructure as an asset class has performed strongly and has stood up to its name, providing stable, secure returns. How investors can innovate and differentiate themselves in an increasingly competitive market will be crucial in the coming years.”

Deloitte’s 2013 infrastructure report can be found here. You can also read Deloitte’s two previous surveys, completed in 2007 and 2010, here and here respectively.

Related Content: Norway: The Problems (and Some Solutions) for Infrastructure Investors and USS Pilots New Investment into Heathrow Airport

Moore Capital, Bridgewater, Citadel: The Big Hedge Funds’ Greatest Exposures

Hold much securitized credit? The answer is probably ‘yes’ for investors in the 30 largest hedge funds—whether they know it or not.

(November 25, 2013) – A repeat of the 2001 dot-com crash would hurt the world’s largest hedge funds worse than other 2008-style financial crisis, according to stress tests by eVestment.

Using self-reported portfolio data, the firm performed a risk factor analysis of the top 30 funds measured by assets under management. 

“It surprised me that of the 11 stress tests, the bursting of the tech bubble and Nasdaq crash would have had the greatest negative impact on the group,” Peter Laurelli, vice president of eVestment’s research group, told aiCIO. “I would have thought that with these being the largest funds, there might be greater sensitivity to broad volatility like we saw the financial crisis.”

In fact, the data indicated that these large funds have positioned themselves fairly conservatively to the risk factors most in play during 2008. 

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As of September, exposure to equity risk accounted for 34.4% of the 30 funds’ total portfolio risk, according to eVestment’s analysis. Fixed income contributed 59.3%, weighted heavily by large allocations to mid- and high-grade corporate bonds. Interest rate risk made up 5.7%, while exposures to commodity markets contributed just 0.8%.   

“The disproportionate exposure to securitized credit markets is another takeaway of this study,” Laurelli said. For nine of the funds’ top 10 exposures, a price move produced a diminishing impact on the value of the aggregate portfolio. That is, a 5% drop in the Russell 3000 would cause the hedge funds’ aggregate value to fall by less than 5%.

“But if when we tried shocking the asset-backed securities factor by 3%, the portfolio is expected to decline in value by 4%,” Laurelli recounted. “A 7% price shock, and the portfolio drops by 9%. But then again, the portfolio’s reactions to gains in asset-back securities are even greater.”

Laurelli wouldn’t reveal the full list of funds in the top 30, but it is sure to include giants such as Bridgewater Associates, AQR, Citadel, DE Shaw, Moore Capital, and Brevan Howard Asset Management.

“It’s the usual suspects,” Laurelli said. 

    

 

Aggregate Portfolio Exposure & Factor Percentage Contribution to Risk

HF_eVestment

Graphic source: eVestment

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