The U.S. continues to dominate the world’s pension system, according to a study by the Thinking Ahead Institute, a research organization sponsored by financial services giant WTW.
As of year-end 2023, U.S. pension assets (both defined benefit and defined contribution) made up 63.9% of the globe’s 22 highest-value pension-providing nations, up from 56.5% 10 years before, the study indicated. That may have something to do with the large amount U.S. pension providers allocate to equities—42%—over a span when stocks did well.
Among the top seven nations’ pension markets, which the report dubs the P7, only Australia, with just 6% of the U.S.’s pension assets, has a bigger allocation to stocks at 51%.
The P7 (the U.S., U.K., Australia, Canada, Japan, the Netherlands and Switzerland), possessed almost $57 trillion in estimated assets as of year-end 2023, about 90% of the global total. This concentration of assets can be seen in another way: The 300 largest pension funds (mainly in the P7) constitute 41% of total global pension assets, the report calculated.
In growth terms, the P7 nations have logged increases close to those found elsewhere. Over 10 years, the P7 pension assets grew at a 4.5% annual rate (market returns plus contributions minus benefit payouts), identical to that of all nations. Regardless of the time, from one year to 20 years, rates were very similar. The difference was that the P7 had a much larger asset base.
Among the trends the report highlighted was a possible slowdown of the switch to defined contribution from defined benefit plans. As the study put it, “there is a growing sentiment that this shift may be going too far, with concerns about the adequacy of retirement income and the loss of financial security among retirees.”
In the U.S., the study noted, IBM last year reopened its DB plan, helped by excess money in its over-funded DB plan. The IBM move, per the report, “reflects a recognition of the limitations of DC plans in delivering secure and predictable retirement income.”
The study also found an increasing influence of governments on the pension system. In Britain, for instance, the government seeks to “attract more cash into domestic investment and divert pension savings into higher risk, higher growth U.K. companies.” Under the so-called Mansion House reforms, U.K. plans are being encouraged to allocate more investments to private equity, for example.
There is little question that the U.S. should continue its top-dog status. The study pointed out that the U.S., for instance, is the world leader in artificial intelligence, and AI is where many of the next financial advances should occur.
Certainly, pensions worldwide face a host of problems, namely international turmoil and possible economic weakness. The report refers to these problems as “systemic risk,” citing: “geopolitical confrontation, climate change, biodiversity loss, inequality and social division and financial system plumbing.” As a result, the study added, “the investment industry is scrambling to develop robust models to measure and adapt to systemic risk.”
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Tags: Artificial Intelligence, Assets, Australia, Defined Benefit, Equities, growth, Mansion House reforms, P7, Pensions, Private Equity, U.K., U.S.