Towers Watson: Turbulent Path to Global Economic Recovery

Consultancy Towers Watson predicts volatile, difficult-to-predict market moves for a number of years.

(August 10, 2011) — Consulting firm Towers Watson says the S&P’s downgrading of the US long-term credit rating reflects a fragility in the global economy.

“The events of the past several days are consistent with the outlook we had prior to these global events — that we expect a bumpy path to recovery, including higher risk than average for all asset classes, with pressures from the debt overhang materializing in places that are hard to predict,” Carl Hess, Towers Watson’s global head of investment, notes in a statement.

The consulting firm expects market volatility to continue for years. In its report, it examines the following three recent events, analyzing their impacts on global markets.

Event 1: Fear of a US recession and a sharp slowdown in global growth. According to Towers Watson, the world economy, especially in the overindebted developed countries, remains relatively fragile.

Want the latest institutional investment industry
news and insights? Sign up for CIO newsletters.

Event 2: US sovereign downgrade. Towers Watson anticipates more selling of equities in the next few days, but not of bonds. It also expects a modest increase in US borrowing costs and for foreign investors to diversify away from US dollar assets. “Our near-term base case is that Treasuries are unlikely to be significantly impacted, with Treasury markets largely driven by the economic outlook, as was the case in Japan following the loss of its AAA rating and demand from risk-averse investors,” says Hess in the statement. “We do not anticipate much forced selling from any significant investor base, although there is a tail risk that some unrecognized financial system linkages may cause large-scale disruption.”

Event 3: Euro-zone crisis. The consultancy noted that it is imperative that a broad and sufficient package of policy measures is implemented to address a potential contagion.

Despite all of the market volatility of the past few days, pension funds are urged to stay calm and maintain a long-term view.

“I think there’s a short-term and a long-term realization for institutional investors,” Michael Dunn, Chief Research Officer of TruColor Capital Management, told aiCIO. “Short-term, there’s panic and an instinctive flight to risk-aversion…Once you get past the shorter-term risks, institutions need to focus on how they’re going to fund their liabilities in an environment where interest rates will stay low in the foreseeable future,” said Dunn, noting that investors have few alternatives to the returns of equity investing. “Institutions that have cut back on equities will soon have very little choice but to go back to equities because those returns won’t come from any other asset class, so it may be that institutions will be more receptive to new, alternative ways to get that equity exposure,” he added.



To contact the <em>aiCIO</em> editor of this story: Paula Vasan at <a href='mailto:pvasan@assetinternational.com'>pvasan@assetinternational.com</a>; 646-308-2742

Market Volatility Creates Short-Term Declines, Long-Term Opportunity for Public Pensions

While the nation's largest public pension funds have been slowly climbing their way back to pre-crisis levels, the recent market slump has erased billions of dollars in gains.

(August 10, 2011) — While pension funds in the United States have enjoyed a strong year as they slowly return to pre-crisis levels, the recent  market slump has contributed to short-term declines and long-term opportunity.

“In the near term, it’s not good; in the long term it’s an opportunity,” Joseph Dear, the chief investment officer of the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS), told CNBC, describing the recent market volatility.

CalPERS, the nation’s largest public pension fund, lost about $18 billion off the value of its stock portfolio from July 1 until Tuesday’s market rebound.

The large decline comes just weeks after both CalPERS and the California Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS) — posted annual investment gains of more than 20% in the fiscal year that ended June 3, fueled largely by stock values. While CalPERS’ assets grew by $37 billion to $237.5 billion, CalSTRS added $29 billion to reach $154.3 billion.

Never miss a story — sign up for CIO newsletters to stay up-to-date on the latest institutional investment industry news.

The market turmoil has also plagued international pension funds. The Netherlands’ ABP, one of the world’s biggest schemes, told the Wall Street Journal that the market slump is having a substantial impact on its funding ratio, which fell below 100% in the beginning of August from 106% at the end of July.

A study by Mercer has revealed that market volatility in the first six trading days of August has dealt a severe blow to pension plans sponsored by S&P 1500 companies, with the aggregate funded status decreasing by $191 billion to a funding deficit of $496 billion and an aggregate funded ratio of 73% as of the market close on August 8.

“What we are seeing is yet another “perfect storm” of equity losses combined with a drop in interest rates, similar to what we saw in 2000/2001 and 2008.” said Jonathan Barry, a partner in Mercer’s Retirement Risk and Finance group, in a statement. “The 73% funded ratio we saw at the end of the day on Monday is the lowest level since August, 2010.”

Last month, a report by the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) warned that while pension fund asset levels in most countries continue to show strong growth and are on the way to returning to pre-crisis levels, the outlook for future economic growth is still in question. Andre Laboul, head of the OECD’s financial affairs division, stated: “Having weathered the financial crisis, pension fund asset levels in most countries continue to show strong growth and are on the way to returning to pre-crisis levels. During 2010, both economic and financial indicators showed signs of further recovery. However, the outlook for future economic growth in developed economies remains uncertain and sluggish.”



To contact the <em>aiCIO</em> editor of this story: Paula Vasan at <a href='mailto:pvasan@assetinternational.com'>pvasan@assetinternational.com</a>; 646-308-2742

«