Tail Risk Hedges Are Vital for Investors Now, Argues Black Swan Theory Guy

Things are so unpredictable that buffering yourself against unknown surprises only makes sense, says Nassim Nicholas Taleb.


The man who hatched the Black Swan theory has advice for investors: Get yourself a tail risk hedge, pronto. “If you don’t have a tail hedge,” said Nassim Nicholas Taleb, “I suggest not being in the market—we’re facing a huge amount of uncertainty.”

The Black Swan theory holds that unlikely events—like, say, a pandemic upending the world economy—can and do appear from nowhere, and they happen more often than you’d think. In his 2007 book, The Black Swan, the former academic and derivatives trader argued that standard statistical models for markets are deficient, in that they are not attuned to detecting rare events. The 2008 financial crisis made him look like a prophet.

The term “black swan” refers to the fact that swans are always, well, white. So when a black one comes along, it is a rare occurrence.

Tail risk is the probability that an event on the narrow end of a bell curve of outcomes has a greater chance of coming true that standard-thinking investors feel comfortable with. In simple form, a tail risk hedge would be to protect long positions on the S&P 500 with derivatives that track the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, which is inversely correlated to the broad market benchmark.

Want the latest institutional investment industry
news and insights? Sign up for CIO newsletters.

Taleb, appearing on CNBC, pointed to what he considered the wackiness of the market’s rise, even as COVID-19 infections and deaths increase—which may well lead to more economic pain, in addition to human tragedy. He cast doubt that there will be a V-shaped recovery.

Washington may be working to forestall any further economic harm, he said, but for naught. “We are printing money like there’s no tomorrow,” he said, alluding to the Federal Reserve’s multi-trillion-dollar campaign to blunt the recession’s most dire effects.

The fear over the coronavirus will continue to haunt the market and the economy, he predicted, long into the future. “COVID seems to be there even if the pandemic dies down,” he said, and that means spooked consumers won’t be in a hurry to spend again and buoy the economy. “You will still have people cautious enough that it will impact a lot of industries,” he said.

Indeed, hedge funds that are designed to benefit from tail risks have enjoyed a remarkable run-up in the age of COVID-19.

For example, the CBOE Eurekahedge Tail Risk Hedge Fund Index has jumped 50% this year. At the same time, the S&P 500 is down 2.6%. Universa, run by Mark Spitznagel, was up 4,000%. Taleb is an adviser to that fund.

On the other hand, the long-term record of these funds isn’t stellar, because market turbulence like today’s doesn’t occur as often as bull runs. Last year, the Eurekahedge fund lost 10% while the S&P 500 earned 34%.

Related Stories:

Chinese Virus Could Be a ‘Black Swan Like No Other’: Moody’s

Following the Crash and Nassim Taleb, Firms Start to Offer Black Swan Protection

Cover Your Tail (Risk), Says AllianceBernstein CIO

Tags: , , , , , , ,

Elliott Pushes for Performance Boost at Crown Castle

Activist investor Paul Singer’s firm is unhappy with shareholder returns from the telecom company’s pivot to fiber infrastructure.


Activist investment firm Elliott Management is pushing for changes to Crown Castle’s fiber business strategy, which the hedge fund says is responsible for the communication infrastructure company’s underperformance.

Crown Castle’s investment in fiber cables, which had cost $16 billion in recent years, has detracted from shareholder returns, according to a letter publicly released from Elliott on Monday. 

“We believe that the company’s expansion away from its core and into fiber infrastructure has detracted from shareholder returns and will continue to detract from shareholder returns unless significant changes are made,” read the letter.

Elliott, headed by Paul Singer, is held by numerous institutional investors, including the University of California and Rhode Island’s pension fund. The firm is a major force in shareholder activism, leading a campaign that has slammed AT&T’s management, for instance.

Want the latest institutional investment industry
news and insights? Sign up for CIO newsletters.

The hedge fund, which has about $40.2 billion in assets under management, said it controls a $1 billion economic interest in Crown Castle through various funds. It also said it has been holding private conversations with the board for months. 

While Elliott considers wireless towers an attractive asset, it said Crown Castle should focus on refining its investment strategy, such as by targeting a return on investment of at least 40% on its fiber capital expenditures. Elliott said the plan would increase cash flow by 35% and also allow it to increase its dividend by 46% in 2021 to $7 per share, and by 8% afterward. 

The Houston-based telecom company significantly underperformed peers American Tower and SBA, Elliott charged. In the past decade, Crown Castle trailed American Tower and SBA by 125% and 313%, respectively, the firm said. 

But in a Monday rebuttal, Crown Castle said that it has created significant shareholder value and is well-positioned as a company to capitalize on 5G deployment in the US. 

“By continuing to execute on our strategy to own and operate this critical infrastructure within the communications ecosystem in the United States, we believe we are providing the best opportunity for Crown Castle to generate significant growth while delivering compelling returns for shareholders,” read a Crown Castle statement. 

Share price for Crown Castle is up 15% over the past three months to $171.51 per share. By comparison, the S&P 500 is up 18% in the past three months. 

Related Stories: 

How Big a Year Was 2018 for Shareholder Activists? Very

Singer: Look for Another Market Slide, to 50% Below Peak

After a Spotty Run, John Paulson Quits Hedge Funds

Tags: , , , , , , , ,

«