Survey: Managers Fear Curbed Growth as Euro Debt Concerns Continue

A study by Northern Trust Global Advisors (NTGA) shows institutional investment managers have moderated their expectations for global growth.

(July 9, 2010) — A new survey shows that institutional investment managers are less optimistic about near-term global growth and more concerned that the Euro debt crisis will continue to affect markets for at least another six months.

“I think the survey shows managers are worried about the global economy in general, since the US economy is linked to the global economy” said Northern Trust’s Janet Yang to ai5000. “Managers are worried that developed countries will take longer to heal, as managers are leaning heavily on the crutch of Chinese economic growth.”

The second-quarter survey, conducted by Northern Trust Global Advisors (NTGA), the multi-manager arm of Northern Trust Corp., reflected a significant shift in optimism from the prior four quarters, with more than two-thirds of respondents expecting sovereign debt concerns in Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain to negatively impact global markets. Seventy-five percent of those surveyed anticipate that global growth will remain the same or decelerate.

While the survey showed a darker view on the global economy, the market view appeared to be more positive. “Financial markets don’t always follow the global economy,” said Yang to ai5000. “Sixty-two percent of managers are optimistic on market valuations and see opportunity, as countries have fortified their balance sheets.” Meanwhile, institutional managers are less concerned about the prospect of inflation or rising interest rates. At the same time, results show managers are more risk averse — 31% indicated they are more risk-averse, up from 23% in the first quarter.

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“There’s also a concern that world leaders are becoming too defensive…more schizophrenic,” said Yang.

As a result of waning confidence in global markets, 21% of managers have reduced exposure to the Eurozone on fears that Europe will need to bail out countries, the findings revealed, while the majority of managers (57%) have avoided these countries completely.

Additionally, the survey found that investment managers cited technology, energy, health care, emerging markets and industrials as the top five most attractive market segments. Consumer discretionary dropped out of the top five, while emerging markets moved higher in the rankings.

The survey by NTGA consisted of approximately 90 institutional managers — long-only mangers in US equity, international equity, and fixed income — who were polled in mid-June.



To contact the <em>aiCIO</em> editor of this story: Application Administrator at <a href='mailto:pvasan@assetinternational.com'>pvasan@assetinternational.com</a>; 646-308-2742

CalSTRS to Rely More on in-House Assets

As part of the fund's 10-year plan for its investments, CalSTRS is considering reducing its number of external money managers.

(July 9, 2010) — In a meeting today, the $132.1 billion California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS) will be exploring ways to boost the use of internal asset management, reducing the $140 million in fees the fund paid to external managers in the last fiscal year.

“…We believe there are areas within the portfolio where internal asset management may be more effective and efficient,” said a CalSTRS investments business plan for the 2010-11 fiscal year, written by chief investment officer Christopher Ailman and staff.

The West Sacramento-based system said it will be considering whether to slash the number of external money managers it will use in the fiscal year that started July 1. It will conduct a review of its external managers to make sure it is only partnering with “highest conviction” managers while continuously exploring new sources of alpha.

Currently, outside managers oversee 25% of the fund’s US equities strategies, 50% of its global equity portfolios and 20% of its fixed-income strategies.

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CalSTRS staff have already managed a Russell 1000 passive portfolio for more than a decade. In April, it began managing a $500 million Russell 2000 passive portfolio in-house and will now consider managing the remaining of its passive management internally in the first half of 2011.

The meeting will begin at 11:30 am ET (8:30 am PT) today, webcast live from www.calstrs.com, CalSTRS spokesman Ricardo Duran confirmed with ai5000. The fund’s CIO Christopher Ailman will be presenting the business plans.

Other funds have increased the in-house management of its assets to save in external management fees and boost efficiency. Leo de Bever the CEO of Alberta’s AIMco — the corporation created to manage the province’s pension and sovereign wealth fund — spoke positively of internal private equity teams to ai5000. “I paid [US $160 million] in external fees last year,” he said in a December interview. “I think we can cut that down by four times if we move some of it internally.” His outlook mirrors other large Canadian institutions, which have created internal teams to pursue direct investments and avoid external fees.



To contact the <em>aiCIO</em> editor of this story: Paula Vasan at <a href='mailto:pvasan@assetinternational.com'>pvasan@assetinternational.com</a>; 646-308-2742

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