Home > News > Asset Allocation > Sohn Conference Speaker Serra Sees UK Gilts as a Short Play
Asset Allocation

Sohn Conference Speaker Serra Sees UK Gilts as a Short Play

Dependency on imports, stagnant productivity, and growing social imbalance prompt negativity from Algebris Investments founder.

By Poonkulali Thangavelu

Davide Serra sees the United Kingdom as the “divided kingdom,” one with a broken growth model, and says shorting the country’s government debt, or gilts, is a good bet.

Speaking at the Sohn Investment Conference in New York, the founder & CEO of Algebris Investments waxed negative on the UK’s prospects, with its “Brexit” from the European Union putting the country at an inflection point.

Within the EU, the country had the “best of both worlds,” as he sees it—an independent currency along with the benefits of participating in the EU. He expects that Brexit will cost the country about £140 billion, or about 7.5% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

Among the reasons for Serra’s negativity on the UK are:

For more stories like this, sign up for the CIO Alert newsletter.

  • Its dependency on imports
  • Weak public finances
  • High level of household leverage
  • Stagnant productivity
  • Growing social imbalance

Expanding on these aspects, he explained that while half of the UK’s exports go to the EU, only 15% of EU exports go to the UK. In fact, about half of the UK’s food and energy are imported, according to Serra.

The country’s fiscal deficit sits at about 2.8% of its GDP and its public debt is about 89% of its GDP. Pointing to high credit card dependency in the country, according to Serra, “100% of sales equals a 100% rise in credit card spending debt.”

Moreover, the country’s productivity is stagnant, with UK productivity being well below the G7 average. And the top 1% of the country’s taxpayers pay 27% of the taxes, which makes for social imbalance. In addition, asset prices are high but productivity is low, and the gap between home prices in the country and consumer incomes is one of the highest in the world.

Considering all of this, he observed, “You are overinvested in the UK” and recommends shorting gilts. The yield on the 10-year gilt is more than 200 basis points below 10-year inflation expectations, according to Serra.

Another Sohn Conference speaker, Kevin Warsh, a visiting fellow in economics at the Hoover Institution and lecturer at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, is concerned about the “uniformity of opinion about what’s going to happen next” among policymakers. The last time that happened was 10 years ago,  before the onset of the global financial crisis.

Warsh wondered if the current economic climate, which is reminiscent of a second gilded age, is nearing its end. While the Federal Reserve’s actions and dominance have been good for asset prices, and beneficial for those with risk appetites who have parlayed their balance sheets to benefit from the situation, these are not good times for people living on a fixed income.

He advises that investors be open to both upside and downside risks around the world. The indicator Warsh is paying the most attention to is capital expenditure spending, considering that if businesses are investing, it is a forward-looking indicator the economy is doing well. This is also a data-based indicator, not one based on sentiment.

Warsh is concerned about what will happen “when the next shock hits and it is time to loosen.” In fact, the Fed’s “institutional credibility is at stake” whenever the economy faces its next shock, he said.

Tags: , ,

Home > News > Newsmakers > Saudi Arabia Sets Forth “Vision 2030” Economic Reform Agenda
Newsmakers

Saudi Arabia Sets Forth “Vision 2030” Economic Reform Agenda

Oil-rich nation seeks to diversify its economy and boost its private sector.

By Poonkulali Thangavelu

As much as $1 trillion in foreign direct investment could flow into Saudi Arabia over the coming 15 years, as the oil-rich nation seeks to diversify its economy and boost its private sector, according to a study by Oxford Strategic Consulting.

The kingdom has set forth its objectives in a reform agenda it calls “Vision 2030,” that plans for the country to move towards a more open and engaged society and decrease its dependency on oil so as to make for a productive society and boost economic growth.

According to the UK-based consulting firm, “The kingdom is at a critical juncture: its economic model is no longer sustainable in a world of depressed oil prices, and there is a youthful, connected population entering the workforce and eager to integrate with the outside world.”

Among the targets Saudi Arabia has set is to boost its GDP growth and double it by 2030, creating up to 6 million new jobs in the process. Better management of its human resources could unleash as much as $6.44 billion in economic output for the country, Oxford Strategic Consulting expects.

For more stories like this, sign up for the CIO Alert newsletter.

Another aim is to boost foreign direct investment so that it contributes as much as 5.7% to GDP, up from the current 3.8%. This would call for 21% growth in foreign direct investment into the country, taking it to $1 trillion in the next 15 years. To this end, Saudi Arabia is looking to do away with its bureaucratic orientation, make it possible for foreigners to invest in more of the country’s economic sectors, and also do over its regulations.

Also, while the country’s private sector output currently makes up 40% of its GDP, Saudi Arabia is looking to raise this to a 65% stake by 2030. Oxford Strategic Consulting expects that the country would have to boost growth in its private sector by 5 percentage points a year to achieve this goal. Saudi Arabia is looking to promote its small and medium business sector, so that 2.5 million more Saudi Arabian workers are employed in these enterprises, taking the total to 4.1 million workers by 2030, to aid private sector growth.  

And the country is also aiming to diversify its oil-dominated export base and increase its non-hydrocarbon exports by an average of 22% a year, so that they grow twentyfold by 2030.

According to Graham Griffiths, an Oxford Strategic Consulting analyst, “Saudi Arabia is embarking on a radical transition that promises to open up many economic opportunities for investors. However, the kingdom will remain a challenging environment to work in, as the traditional way of doing business – both within the government and in the private sector – meets the new economic model. Informed analysis of the rapidly changing political, economic and social landscape in the kingdom will be vital to seizing the opportunities presented by Saudi Vision 2030.”

Tags: , , ,

«