Short-Term Losses Dent Norway’s Long-Term Returns

Pension giant’s 10-year return down over 2% after $112 billion first quarter loss.

When a sovereign wealth fund, pension fund, or endowment has a bad quarter, it always claims it’s not rattled by short-term losses and reminds everyone that it’s investing for the long term.

However, the global stock market crash brought on by the coronavirus pandemic during the first quarter was so severe that it has put a dent into the long-term returns of Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG), the world’s second largest pension fund.

The fund lost 14.6% in the first quarter of 2020, or 1.171 trillion kroner ($112.4 billon). The fund’s portfolio was weighed down by its equity investments, which tumbled 21.1% during the quarter. The fund’s average holding in the world’s listed companies, measured as its share of the FTSE Global All Cap stock index, was 1.5% at the end of the year. The index was down 20.3% for the quarter.

Fixed-income was the top-performing asset class for the fund, returning 1.3% for the quarter. The return for the fund’s unlisted real estate investments was not available and will be released later in April.

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“We have seen a substantial decline in the world’s equity markets in the first quarter, with considerable fluctuations from one day to the next,” Yngve Slyngstad, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, said in a statement. “The market situation is very challenging. However, the fund has a long-term horizon.”

Unfortunately for Slyngstad, the fund’s long-term horizon was also affected by the historically bad quarter as its annualized returns over the last 10 years fell to 5.7% at the end of March from 7.83% just three months earlier. And since its inception in 1998, the fund’s returns were 5.3% at the end of the first quarter, down from 6.09% at the end of December.

The net real returns over the last 10 years dropped to 4% at the end of March from 5.98% and the end of 2019, while the net real returns since inception fell to 3.5% in March from 4.17% at year-end 2019.

The performance was an abrupt reversal from last year when the fund returned 19.9%, which was the second highest return in percentage terms and the highest in terms of krone.

“The strong return in 2019 provides a reminder that the fund’s market value could also fluctuate substantially in the future,” the fund said in its annual report earlier this year. “In isolation, a global stock market downturn equivalent to that in 2008 would reduce the value of the fund by almost 3 trillion kroner.”

The krone depreciated against several of the main currencies during the quarter, which is why the fund’s market value only fell 90 billion kroner from the end of the previous quarter despite the large investment loss.

The fund recently named Nicolai Tangen, chief executive of London-based AKO Capital, as its new CEO to replace Slyngstad, who said in October that he is stepping down after 12 years heading the fund.

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Keep Workers on the Job, Group Demands, as Business Leaders Start to Concur

Investor group, headed by New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer, now sees the corporate world headed its way.

Employers should keep workers on the job despite the coronavirus-imposed shutdown of many businesses, urged an institutional investors group led by New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer. This sentiment, not long ago greeted with eyerolls in the corporate world, may be getting some traction.

“Workers must be protected during the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath,” said Stringer, who oversees the city’s $217.9 billion public pension system, in a statement. “As shareholders, we expect companies to protect the health, safety, and economic stability of their workers.”

The 195-member group, comprised of public pensions, asset managers, and faith-based funds, controls more than $4.5 trillion in assets. Helping Stringer form that coalition were Domini Impact Investments and the Interfaith Center on Corporate Responsibility. Among the signatories are the AFL-CIO, BMO Global Asset Management, and Invesco. Stringer has backed a host of such initiatives, such as a campaign to let large investors nominate corporate board members.

The latest push by Stringer and his allies hopes to get paid leave implemented and to impose additional health and safety measures on employers. “The long-term success of companies depends on the long-term success of employees,” he said, “and this call to action is not just the right thing to do, but the smart thing to do.” The demand comes amid widespread layoffs of workers across the United States, as consumers stay locked in at home and don’t spend.

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Fortunately for them, Stringer and his friends are finding a changed climate for their pro-worker message among companies, and even pro-business Republicans. Congress has enacted a $2.2 trillion rescue program to ease the economic burdens of the virus, including longer and more substantial unemployment benefits.

Part of that legislation is something called the Paycheck Protection Program, which encourages banks to lend to small businesses that keep employees on the payroll. This takes its inspiration from Europe, where several nations are tapping government coffers to pay 60% of workers’ salaries.

Stringer’s initiative is, in many ways, part of a trend that is spreading throughout corporate America—the notion of stakeholders, which covers more people involved in a company than just its investors.  

Last year, the Business Roundtable and the World Economic Forum in Davos called for expanding the purpose of the corporation beyond a focus on shareholders, enlarging it to employees, suppliers, communities, and society at large. In Europe, labor members on corporate boards are fairly common.

This concept, of course, runs counter to the long-held philosophy in corporate circles that stockholders, who by definition have put their money into a company, should be the predominant, if not sole, focus of management policy.

Famed economist Milton Friedman laid the intellectual groundwork for this idea by writing in 1970 that a corporation’s goal was to maximize shareholder value. The Nobel Prize winner was skeptical of advocates for corporate “social responsibility,” a term that he castigated as too vague to be useful.

But now the winds may be blowing in the opposite direction, with even conservative Republicans in Congress joining in on massive federal spending and worker protection, to a degree.

As the Stringer-led group stated in its manifesto, “While it is clear that social isolation is crucial to protect workers and to control the spread of the virus, widespread layoffs by companies will only exacerbate the current economic turmoil and further destabilize markets.” 

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