Rising Rates Boosts Corporate Pension Funded Status by $38 billion

The aggregate deficit of the 100 largest US corporate pension plans fell by $38 billion during September to $269 billion.The funded ratio rose to 85.4% from 83.8% at the end of August, according to consulting firm Milliman.

Asset returns were relatively flat for the month at just 0.25%, leaving the $1.580 trillion market value unchanged from the previous month. The projected benefit obligation (PBO) decreased by $38 billion during September.

The discount rate for September was the second lowest discount rate recorded in the 19 years Milliman has been tracking the 100 largest corporate pension funds.

“While September was overall positive for corporate pensions, we’re not out of the abyss created by the historically low discount rates in Q3,” Zorast Wadia, said in a release. “In fact, over the past twelve months, discount rates have fallen by over 100 basis points. While asset returns may provide some relief, Q4 will turn out to be bleak for pensions if interest rates don’t improve.”

Want the latest institutional investment industry news and insights? Sign up for CIO newsletters. 

During the quarter ending Sept. 30, the funded status deficit widened by $64 billion, as plans experienced consecutive record low discount rates in August and September. Although the aggregate value of assets increased by $18 billion during the quarter, plan liabilities surged by $82 billion..

Milliman said that if the 100 companies in the report were to earn their expected 6.6% median asset return, and if the current discount rate of 3.09% holds through 2020, the projected pension deficit would fall to $253 billion by the end of 2019.he funded ratio would rise to 86.3% and 89.9% by year-end 2019.. The forecast assumes aggregate annual contributions of $50 billion.

The forecast could be improved further by a return to a rising interest rate environment, however, markets are pricing in the potential for further rate cuts.

Falling Discount Rates Send Corporate Pension Funding Tumbling

US Corporate Pension Funding Plummets $65 Billion in May

Tags: Funded Status, Milliman, Pension

The Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation is working through a five-year asset allocation plan it launched in 2016, but it recently showcased it’s looking beyond 2021 by discussing myriad factors for each asset class.

The current plan steadily increases the fund’s exposure to private markets and subsequently lowers allocations for traditional investments, as seen below:

APFC Target Allocations
*Never miss a story — sign up for CIO newsletters to stay up-to-date on the latest institutional investment industry news.* 	FY ‘19	FY ‘20	FY ‘21
Public Equities	38%	37%	35%
Fixed Income Plus	22%	20%	18%
Private Equity & Special Opps	12%	13%	14%
Real Estate	11%	12%	13%
Infrastructure & Private Income	7%	8%	9%
Absolute Return	5%	5%	6%
Asset Allocation (60% Total Fund/40% Cash)	5%	5%	5%
Total	100%	100%	100%

Source; APFC

“Given the long-term pacing planning that occurs around private markets investments, now is the optimal time to begin discussions with the board around desired asset allocation mixes beyond 2021,” Frampton said in a presentation to the sovereign wealth fund’s staff.

Some of the major themes discussed in Frampton’s presentation were abnormally high equity market valuations, historically low interest rates, slowing global economic growth, and subsequent low expected returns. He also discussed his team’s practices to seek return premiums through increasing its allocation to private markets drawdown asset classes, the likes of which have grown from $2.6 billion in 2012 to $14 billion in 2019. He noted that private equity valuations have increased in tandem with other public markets such as the S&P 500 between 2005 and 2019.

Using metrics at hand, the staff at APFC calculated the portfolio’s adjusted return for every dollar reallocated from public markets and Treasuries to private equity. Their findings are summarized as follows:

	1% re-allocation effect on expected return and risk, respectively	5% re-allocation effect on expected return and risk, respectively
Fixed Income to Private Equity	+ 9 bps / 19 bps	+ 43 bps / 98 bps
Public Equity to Private Equity	+ 6 bps / 2 bps	+ 30 bps / 10 bps

Source: APFC

Frampton also provided seven hypothetical portfolio mixes, but noted that “given uncertainty in forecasting markets and asset returns, it is worth emphasizing the importance of judgment in the decision-making process, ultimately every forecast in this presentation will be wrong (by a small degree or a large degree) and each decision is to be made on the margin.” The hypothetical mixes are:

	Public Equities	Fixed Income	Private Equity	Real Estate	Private Infra/Credit	Absolute Return	Asset Allocate
2021 Target	35%	18%	14%	13%	9%	6%	5%
19% Private Equity from Public Equity	30%	18%	19%	13%	9%	6%	5%
19% Private Equity from Fixed Income	35%	13%	19%	13%	9%	6%	5%
24% Private Equity from Public Equity	25%	18%	24%	13%	9%	6%	5%
24% Private Equity from Fixed Income	35%	8%	24%	13%	9%	6%	5%
Heavy Alternatives Option One	17%	15%	24%	15%	14%	10%	5%
Heavy Alternatives Option Two	13%	15%	30%	13%	9%	15%	5%

Source: APFC

For its next annual meeting in May 2020, Frampton wants to establish five-year asset class projections that feature 1% annual increases to private equity and special opportunities target exposures, and keep other private markets asset classes at the FY2021 target, thereby resulting in a fiscal year 2026 target allocation of 41% for private markets.