Research Finds Large Variations in Performance Across LPs Investing in the Same Funds

Harvard/Stanford paper finds pensions would have earned an aggregate $45 billion more if private equity fund distribution waterfalls were uniform.

A joint research paper between Harvard University and Stanford University concluded that there is a large variation in net-of-fee performance across public pension funds investing in the same private equity fund.

The paper finds a 500 basis point standard deviation on investment performance, ultimately costing public pension funds an aggregate $45 billion in the absence of a uniform distribution waterfall.

“The pattern of strong pension effects indicates that some pensions have systematically paid higher fees than other pensions in their respective funds over the course of our sample,” the research says. “We argue that this empirical finding is due to ex-ante differences in willingness to pay for the same fund.”

Pensions that are larger and bear more assets under management, have more member representation on their boards, and who are better informed about fund management (general partner) skill than others, may bear witness to some of these relatively higher net-of-fee performance figures.

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There’s also the potential explanation of some GPs offering several different contracts for the same fund. For example, one contract offered to investors may include high carry fees paired with low management fees, and another might offer low carry and high management fees. The performance of the fund’s assets themselves would then lead to a wide disparity in returns due to the fund structures.

“There are consistent winners and losers in the sense that some pensions systematically pay more fees than others even when investing in the same fund (i.e., pension effects),” the report said. “The pension effects that we estimate are large in the cross-section, as some pensions could have earned as much as $15 more per $100 on their investments over our sample.”

Their research also states that GPs may do their best to exploit the differences in investors’ appetites for fee structures—and labeled it price discrimination. “In practice, willingness to pay might be revealed through negotiations or by offering LPs a menu of fees from which to choose. Our analysis collectively suggests that price dispersion of this kind is large in the context of private markets and is at least partly driven by pensions that fail to fully optimize when choosing their fee structures,” the report said.

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Trump Is No. 2 Earnings Grower Among Post-WWII Presidents

His 13.4% yearly corporate profit increase, admittedly over just three years, is bested only by Obama’s 26% over eight, CFRA’s Stovall finds.

Donald Trump is No. 2 is terms of corporate earnings growth for post-World War II presidents, up 13.4% annually on average. The president with the best ranking was Barack Obama, at 26%.

This compilation, from CFRA Research’s chief investment strategist, Sam Stovall, is telling because how economies and businesses fare has a lot to do with reelection chances. Obama handily won a second term in 2012.

To be sure, the effects of the coronavirus this year could hold down company profits and spoil Trump’s record. Goldman Sachs, for instance, believes that the virus’ economic impact worldwide will slash earnings growth to zero for the rest of the year.

Comparing Trump to others who complete one or two full terms is, certainly, problematical. He has entered his fourth year in office, and potentially must traverse another four years post-2020, which runs the risk of encountering economic trouble.

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Obama had eight years that were unmarred by recessions (including a close call in 2016, a slowdown owing to tumbling oil prices). That extra time worked to Obama’s favor: The first half of his initial term was up and down in earnings as the nation pulled out of the worst economic slump since the Great Depression. Over his two terms, advances were easier for him as they started from a very low base after the Great Recession.

By CFRA’s tally, Bill Clinton came in third in the earnings growth sweepstakes with 12.8%, and Harry Truman was fourth at 12.6%. Clinton also was blessed with a recession-free tenure. Truman had two mild recessions as the nation demobilized from the war, but the the rest of the time he benefited from a surge in business investment as industry focused on re-converting to civilian-oriented output.

The only post-war presidents to encounter negative earnings were the father and son Bushes. George H.W. Bush (earnings down 5.3%) suffered a recession in 1990, resulting from the savings and loan debacle and the slide in junk bonds, which contributed heavily to his reelection loss that year.

His son, George W. Bush (down 14.1%), had two recessions—one at the outset of his presidency, stemming from the dot-com bust, the other at the end with the financial crisis.

In terms of gross domestic product expansion, Trump thus far is further down the scale than in the earnings ranking. He is eighth of the 13 postwar presidents, with an annual growth rate of 2.5%. That beats Obama’s 1.8%. GDP increases don’t always correlate closely with earnings. The leaders here were John F. Kennedy (5.5%), Truman (5.2%), and Johnson (5.0%).

If Trump manages to avoid a recession, then he would join the short list of presidents, all of them Democrats, who accomplished this feat: Clinton, Johnson, Kennedy, and Obama.

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