Record High Yield Issuance for Income-Hungry Investors

Investors need income, and BB-rated companies (and below) are happy to oblige by issuing record levels of debt.

(November 9,2012) — Issuance of bonds by companies deemed to be relatively risky has hit record levels as investors have snapped up the higher returns available for taking a bet on these firms, data released today has shown.

Some $341.6 billion has been issued in global high yield debt so far this year, according to data monitor Thomson Reuters. This has already broken the previous annual record set in 2010, when high yield issuers raised $322.9 billion.

Investors searching for income to boost their portfolios have been increasingly turning to high yield bond funds as equity markets have failed to rise and returns from government-issued bonds have hit rock-bottom.

Mark Holman, managing partner at Twenty Four Asset Management, told aiCIO: “The year 2012 has seen investors flock to the high yield bond sector in record volumes which has assisted the sector in generating 19% returns so far this year in Europe. But with income likely to remain the financial markets’ most scarce commodity in the quarters ahead there is little reason to question investors’ rationale. Base rates are anchored and gilts yields are at record lows, coupled with a low default rate and unconventional policy action from central banks, the investment case for the asset class has been compelling.”

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Issuance surged in the second half of the year, according to Thomson Reuters. By the end of June high yield issuance trailed 2011 levels, but drew up and surpassed that in the next three months.

European issuers have raised $61.4 billion in the global high yield markets this year, also an all-time annual record, but the overall percentage European issuers make up on the global scale has fallen, showing the spurt the asset class has had in the US and other markets.

High yield mutual funds in Europe have seen bumper inflows, according to Lipper – the retail fund flow monitor at Thomson Reuters. Net sales for the year hit €39.9 billion in October, with €7.6 billion arriving in that month. Assets in these funds topped €180 billion; three years ago this total was €62.8 billion.

However, Holman warned: “Investors will need to be increasingly selective about which companies they invest in as high yield corporates (particularly in Europe) are facing a challenging environment which will put pressure on earnings and therefore push key risk metrics such as net debt to ebitda in the wrong direction. The result of this is likely to be downward rating pressure in 2013. But with the yield on the sterling high yield index still in excess of 8% for an average maturity of just six years and a BB3 credit rating, the sector is likely to remain well supported.”

All types of corporate debt have seen a boost in 2012 as other asset classes have failed to deliver the high returns institutional investors need to make good their deficits or meet specific investment targets.

Year-to-date, the MSCI World Index has made 7.96%. By the end of September, Euro-denominated high yield bonds were returning 5.8% more than German government-issued bunds, according to Alliance Bernstein. The fund manager said that historical out-performance by this asset was 2.8%.

Inflation Hedging in the Age of QE-Infinity

Hint: Inflation-indexed bonds aren't the whole solution, says one top researcher.

(November 8, 2012) – Investors, institutional and otherwise, have not recalibrated their inflation hedging strategies to a post-2008 economy, and one French researcher believes it’s about time they did. 

“Considering the overwhelming debt overhang problem which looms over most sovereign issuers from industrialized countries, it is becoming increasingly clear that inflations will eventually be the last available weapon left in the state’s arsenal to fight bulging balance-sheets,” argues Nicolas Fulli-Lemaire in a whitepaper. He holds a PhD in economics, and is a research analyst at Amundi, the subsidiary asset management firm for Société Générale and Crédit Agricole. 

“In truth, there is no silver bullet: inflation is solely linked to explicitly inflation-linked securities such as linked bonds or swaps,” Full-Lemaire writes. “All other asset classes have only time-varying hedging capabilities and therefore offer limited protection.” 

Inflation volatility is higher now than it has been previously, and interest rates lower, making the conventional strategy of inflation-indexed bonds less appealing. Furthermore, Fulli-Lemaire notes that high demand for the small number of linked bonds available in the European marketplace puts a premium on the debt, even as long-term real interest rates have dipped under 0%. 

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For investors with sufficiently long time horizons, which institutional funds typically have, Fulli-Lemaire advises hedging against core inflation, as opposed to headline. “The obvious pitfall of this methodology is that to this date, no core inflation-linked asset exists,” the author points out. A pitfall, indeed. 

However, Fulli-Lemaire does propose a solution for the long-term investors looking to cushion against inflation: a new derivative

“To make-up for the lack of an investable asset, we could go forward by imagining a core versus headline inflation swap that would see long-term players receive a fixed rate for the spread between headline and core inflation and short-term players be on the other end of the trade.” 

Full-Lemaire is one of a number of finance/economics experts engaged with the inflation hedging question. As Quantitative Easing has become a household term, research into hedging tactics has also spiked. 

An article in the Journal of Alternative Investments detailed a robust study of infrastructure and inflation, and found the former did not live up to its reputation as a solid hedge. In fact, “infrastructure overall as well as its subsectors telecommunication, transport, and utilities hedge inflation neither particularly well nor any better than equities,” write authors Maximilian Rödel and Cristoph Rothballer of the Technische Universität München, Germany. “Only portfolios of infrastructure firms with high pricing power exhibit a slightly superior (yet not statistically significant) hedging quality at a five-year investment horizon.” Consequently, investors should “depart from the belief that infrastructure generally provides a natural hedge,” Rödel and Rothballer conclude. 

Read Full-Lemaire’s full paper, “Alternative Inflation Hedging Portfolio Strategies: Going Forward under Immoderate Macroeconomics,” here.

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