Private Equity Firms? More Like Private Debt Providers

Lending occupies more and more of PE  companies’ attention, per a new PitchBook Report.

They are called private equity firms, but lately, private debt providers would be a more apt description. The likes of Blackstone and TPG are refocusing their strategies to lending from equity investments.

“These asset managers, most of which were founded on the soil of leveraged buyouts, increasingly tie their asset growth to credit investments,” according to a PitchBook report.

The seven largest publicly traded PE firms—Ares Management, Apollo Global Management, Blackstone, Blue Owl, Carlyle Group, KKR and TPG—lent $121.1 billion to private borrowers in 2024’s second quarter, research firm PitchBook found. That dwarfs the $11.3 billion they laid out for private equity in that period.

The leader of this group is Apollo, with Q2 2024 lending of $52 billion, more than double that of the year-prior quarter. In this year’s Q2, Apollo made just $200 million in PE investments, according to PitchBook

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Lending by non-bank organizations is growing fast and should hit $2.8 trillion by 2028, well beyond the $1.5 trillion total at the end of 2022 and a huge advance from $300 billion in 2010, data provider Preqin reported.

This relatively new asset class, which focuses on lending to small and midsize companies, took off following the global financial crisis. Congress and regulators discouraged bank lending to all but the best credit risks, meaning larger businesses. In addition to corporate loans, private credit providers are now lending for commercial mortgages, equipment leasing and even companies in bankruptcy proceedings.

Also boosting private debt, PitchBook reported, is greater attention to the category from insurance companies, which are hungry for capital to fuel their investments in asset-backed securities such as auto loans and mortgages.

“Private credit is redefined to be a much broader scope of activity” than private equity, observed Tim Clarke, PitchBook’s lead PE analyst, quoted in the report. “That’s why it’s so much bigger, and the private equity business is starting to look small by comparison.”

The report also quoted Patrick Davitt, an analyst at Autonomous Research, explaining that allocators seek to replace their customary fixed-income investments, such as Treasury or corporate bonds, with debt offerings that are low risk and also have illiquidity premiums—that is, they carry high yields because they are hard to trade. 

Amid a dry season for initial public offerings and enticed by high and floating loan rates (often north of 10%), PE firm have piled into private credit. For PE firms’ usual equity investments into companies, the payoff may be years away, if ever. But private credit delivers lush interest regularly.

Related Stories:

Insurers Flock into Private Debt, Alternatives, Mercer Says

Dimon Sounds Alarm on Private Credit—Sounds Like Junk Bonds, Circa 1990

Private Credit Not Likely to Run Out of Capital, per Report

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Rate Cuts Unlikely to Affect PRT Market in Short Term

Funds are more sensitive to long-term rates, upon which the Federal Reserve’s action will have little impact.



The pension risk transfer market boomed in 2023 and so far in 2024 due to a record level in funded status across corporate pension plans, as plan sponsors sought to offload their pension liabilities in record numbers. 
 

Now that interest rates are newly on the downswing, PRTs allow funds to lock in their gains and continue to enjoy the benefits of previous higher rates. 

Those higher interest rates were a major driver in creating funding surpluses. According to Aon’s funded status tracker, corporate plans in the S&P 500 stood at 100.6% funded as of September 2. Other funded status trackers saw funded ratios of corporate plans reaching even higher: 108% (Mercer), 109.5% (LGIM America) and 114.9% (Insight Investment) at the end of July.  

“We’ve seen a lot of funded status gains due to higher rates,” says Ciaran Carr, head of client solutions for North America at Insight Investment. “Pension plans that have de-risked into more fixed income” have hedged against interest rate risk and have locked in gains. So, he notes, “they’re in a better position to be protected.” Plans that did not do a PRT “will remain subjected to rates declining from here.”   

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With the Fed announcing a 50-bps cut to the fed funds rate, the pension risk transfer market, having thrived as a result of elevated rates, is unlikely to be affected in the short term. That is because pension funds, as long-term investors, are mainly exposed to long-term rates, which are unlikely to drop much, despite the projected slide in short-term rates.  

“Pension funds are more sensitive to longer-term interest rates, rather than the level of fed fuds, and we expect as rate cuts occur [that] the yield curve will likely steepen, with little downward impact on longer interest rates,” says Scott Garrett, head of U.S. pensions at Schroders.  

A spokesperson for PRT provider Legal & General Retirement America said the company does not anticipate any short-term changes in the rate transfer market as a result of rate cuts. 

“We don’t anticipate any short-term changes due to rate cuts, as markets have generally reflected those,” the spokesperson said. “On the longer term, sponsors are now better funded and likely better hedged, so we would not necessarily expect any significant impact.”  

The timing of transfers is a factor in PRT pricing. The PRT market has exhibited “seasonality” in recent years, with PRT transactions executed earlier in the calendar year tending to produce better PRT pricing for plan sponsors, according to Brian Donohue, a partner in October Three Consulting. “Which is to say that it may be difficult to generate insurer interest and attractive pricing toward the end of 2024, as insurers fill their books for the year.”   

What Funds Should Do  

Schroders’ Garrett says the changing interest rate environment is likely to increase volatility and add challenges for pension asset allocators. 

“We believe the more interesting impact on the pension fund allocations will be the need to diversify risks, given the lower level of risk premium, greater idiosyncratic risk and the greater likelihood of higher volatility as central bank policies diverge, particularly given the large overweight to corporate beta through bonds and equities and loans,” Garrett says.   

Justin Demino, head of solution design for North America at Insight Investment, said his firm views interest rate risk as an uncompensated risk.  

“We think that taking interest rate risk off the table to the extent that it’s affordable by a pension plan is a prudent decision.  Think about hedging interest rate risk with physical bonds, with completion overlay, both at an aggregate level to 100% interest rate hedge ratio if affordable.”  

Related Stories:  

Pension Risk Transfer Premiums Reach $14.6 Billion in Q1 

Crown Holdings to Transfer $740M in Pension Liabilities to MassMutual 

No Recommendations Yet From the Labor Department on PRT Provider Selection 

 

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