(December
16, 2013) – Growth. If major asset managers’ prognosis for markets in 2014 could
be summed up in a single word, this would be it.
The
most frequently used term by BlackRock portfolio managers in internal blog
posts was just that: “Growth.” Not even “Fed” and “tapering” combined could
match it. And “Investing in Growth” was the title of JP Morgan Asset
Management’s year-end report. Likewise, its counterpart out of Goldman Sachs
Asset Management (GSAM) bore the headline, “Stronger Growth, More Differentiation.”
An
analysis of 10 asset management firms’ outlooks for the year ahead found
unanimous optimism for developed markets overall. The touch-and-go recovery of
past years will likely solidify into healthy growth for 2014, the managers have
broadly predicted.
“2013
was a stabilizing year, and we’re looking forward to more recovery in a
moderate growth environment,” Rick Lacaille, global CIO of State Street Global
Advisors (SSgA), said during a December 2 panel in New York City. “Inflation is
also likely to be moderate.” Lacaille also anticipated that US monetary policy
under Federal Reserve head Janet Yellen will continue with the strategy and
mandate set the over the last couple of years.
Risk
assets look good, the group said, but Lacaille and a few others also suggested
that hedging with little cash under the mattress could be worth the sting of 0%
returns.
Two
principal threats to the predicted stable global expansion came up
consistently: First, a wayward exit from quantitative easing programs, and
second, political upheaval in developing countries.
Due
to the latter, PAAMCO decided to hold the majority of its investment book in
developed markets, Director Anne-Gaelle Pouille told aiCIO. The California-based fund-of-hedge funds and advisory has
$8.5 billion under management, making it a boutique relative to the traditional
asset management giants.
Whereas
the likes of BlackRock and SSgA have translated their bullishness into
single-digit equity overweights, some smaller shops are positioning for serious
offensive play in 2014.
WindhamCapital, for example, a quant-driven firm with roughly $1.5 billion in assets, has
dialed up its exposure to risk assets by 30 percentage points, according to CIO
Lucas Turton. Windham’s benchmark is a 50/50 split between growth and defensive
assets, but reallocations from global fixed income to stocks, REITS, and
commodities has taken that proportion to about 80/20.
“Systemic risk
remains low,” Turton told aiCIO,
thanks to “falling volatility in the equity and fixed income markets and stability of correlations between asset classes.” His group hasn’t
fixated on taper day the way most other asset managers have been, but Windham’s
models have deliver roughly the same forecast (although perhaps a touch
sunnier).
“Our
assessment indicates resilient markets,” Turton said.
While
resilience in developed markets—particularly the US—was a unanimous conclusion
among the 10 firms, the common stance on emerging markets was uncertainty.
“Debt in emerging economies
continues to offer higher yields and the potential for both ratings upgrades
and currency appreciation,” Manulife
Asset Management wrote. But, the firm continued, “exposure
to emerging market debt is not without risk as we witnessed with the aggressive
selling of the asset class when the reduction in global monetary accommodation
became more likely.”
Conviction remained low
regarding developing markets, even among those managers that took a position. The
overriding wisdom was to examine each country individually, and exercise
caution. Europe, most agreed, was a safer bet for exposure to non-US growth
assets.
Commodities and the US
dollar were rare points of divisiveness. BlackRock argued that US development of
the former would bolster the latter for some time to come. Goldman Sachs Asset
Management agreed on the promise of the US dollar—though due to its “relative
cheapness”—and labeled commodities a “neutral” asset for the year ahead. Windham
was keen on commodities, however, while Investec predicted that prices will
continue to “trade sideways.”
Investec’s
John Stopford, the co-head of multi-asset strategies, conveyed the
prevailing outlook among assets managers for 2014 in a recent video.
“We
would generally favor equities over bonds for the time being,” he remarked. “Bond
yields remain artificially depressed and are more likely to rise, we think, than
fall over current levels—albeit at a gradual pace. But with equity markets,
valuations look relatively constructive; balance sheets are in good shape; and
company profits are beginning to pick up. In particular, we’re optimistic about
the outlook for global growth.”