Northern Trust Shows Strength of Emerging Investment Managers in US Equity Investing

A study by Northern Trust has shown that firms with less than $3.6 billion under management gained 0.67% per year in their active large cap US equity portfolios for the five-year period, a higher return than larger firms or the S&P 500 Index, which was down –0.80% per year over the same period.

(October 27, 2010) — New research by Northern Trust has shown that smaller investment firms can provide improved returns and better downside protection in volatile markets compared to large firms investing in the same asset class.

“We’ve found that smaller boutique firms tend to be more entrepreneurial and performance-driven, and have consequently been able to produce better returns,” John McCareins, senior investment program manager for Northern Trust Global Investments, told aiCIO. He attributed the greater success of emerging investment managers to 1) crisper decision-making 2) flexibility in implementation 3) focus on performance and 4) appropriate alignment of incentives. “An alignment of incentives, a live or die attitude, where the success of the firm depends on performance, is a strong motivator for smaller managers,” McCareins said.

According to Northern Trust’s research — titled “No Contest: Emerging Managers Lap Investment Elephants” — investment firms with less than $3.6 billion under management that collectively manage 1% of all assets in the institutional market outperformed the largest firms and all other groups studied over the five-year period ending June 30, 2010. Additionally, the research showed that the median small manager outperformed the median large firm by 72 basis points per year, which translates to an advantage of more than $7 million on a typical $200 million institutional allocation over five years.

“Our new study indicates that emerging managers may help investors squeeze more out of their most important, and most challenging, asset class,” said Northern Trust’s Ted Krum said in a statement. “Despite market declines and portfolio reallocations, US equities still make up the largest portion of many institutional client accounts, making this asset class a key driver of performance for institutional investors.”

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To contact the <em>aiCIO</em> editor of this story: Paula Vasan at <a href='mailto:pvasan@assetinternational.com'>pvasan@assetinternational.com</a>; 646-308-2742

PIMCo's El-Erian Warns of the 'New Normal', Says Fed's Moves Could Spur Inflation

Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of the Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCo), who popularized the phrase "new normal" to describe how growth will be depressed by consumer retrenchment and tighter financial regulation, says the Fed's purchase of Treasuries will lead to faster global inflation while failing to revive US economic growth.

(October 27, 2010) — Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCo), who popularized the idea of a ‘new normal,’ has said that investors should expect lower-than-average historical returns with greater regulation, lower consumption, slower growth, and a shrinking global role for the US economy.

“It is our base case, but it’s not our dominant case,” El-Erian, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund, said in an interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene. “We are looking at a world where there are many possible outcomes. It’s no longer like the old days when we can be confident in just one outcome.” According to the CEO, investors should expect 4% to 6% returns on average and said that gains will come in a “volatile” fashion, Bloomberg reported.

PIMCo has adjusted to a new normal by offering equity funds to investors in April, while moving into stocks to allow customers to diversity their holdings as areas such as emerging markets outperform other regions, Bloomberg reported. PIMCo’s $252 billion Total Return Fund returned about 11.87% in the past year, surpassing about 76% of its peers.

El-Erian has said that the Federal Reserve’s Treasury purchases will accelerate global inflation while failing to lower US unemployment. He has said that he doesn’t believe in the effectiveness of the Fed’s “quantitative easing” program to deliver high growth or low unemployment, referring to the Fed’s strategy of injecting more money into the economy. “QE is meant to drive down the price of safe assets so much that we are all pushed into doing something risky,” El-Erian said in an interview with Bloomberg Monday at a gathering of the Financial Women’s Association of New York.

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To contact the <em>aiCIO</em> editor of this story: Paula Vasan at <a href='mailto:pvasan@assetinternational.com'>pvasan@assetinternational.com</a>; 646-308-2742

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