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A
rainy November Wednesday in North
Carolina. Jim Dunn, newly ensconced Chief Investment Officer of the $1.2
billion Wake Forest University endowment, sits at a drab desk in a
linoleum-floored classroom of Reynolda Hall, the school’s main administrative
building. In front of him, a flurry of papers and a remote to control the
room’s projector.
“People remember everything, forever, at an endowment,” he says. “They
remember the bad bet—think of Jack Meyer, Larry Summers—for years. The politics
of higher education are rivaled only by the military and clergy, and so my job,
having come into town relatively recently”—Dunn, formerly of California-based
Wilshire Associates, arrived in Winston-Salem in July, 2009—“is to meet with
the different constituencies and, above all, ‘protect, perform, provide’. This
is how I plan to do it.” With that, he turns on the projector, and the
presentation begins.
Wake Forest University is in a forest, but it is not in the Forest of
Wake. Instead, it is situated outside the banking and tobacco town of Winston-Salem,
lured from its pastoral roots north of Raleigh by a donation of land and
capital from the Z. Smith Reynolds Foundation in 1956. The school’s main campus
is both secluded and clustered, with its green lawns cloistered by foliage and
brown brick buildings. As a tribute to its benefactor, a number of these
buildings—including the one Dunn sits in—are named after the family that gave
both Winston-Salem and Wake Forest University its lifeblood. North of the
Mason-Dixon Line, such nomenclature would likely draw vocal criticism from
“social investors,” but the reality is that, 60 years on, the university is no
more tied to tobacco than it is to cotton. Change, like elsewhere, has swept
through Wake Forest in the last half century, and it continues its unmitigated
march at the school’s endowment under Jim Dunn.
“I have a 100-day plan,” Dunn says, the projector’s
output supporting his claim. “The first 30 days, I set expectation. The next
55: we plan for growth. In the last 15—which we’re in right now—we execute the
plan. We are five days behind.”
An essential part of this Patton-like plan is to
reassess the University’s asset allocation. “Our asset allocation has served
the university well, but we’re in different times now,” Dunn notes. “We’re
starting all over. I don’t care about what other endowments do.” Translation:
Returns mean nothing if liquidity isn’t present.
Liquidity, many know, is the latest clarion call of endowment
investing. Even the newest students at Wake Forest’s Business School—one of
whom, football player Willie Dixon, works in the endowment office in an effort
to increase connections between the university and its investment office—has
likely heard of the liquidity problems that swept through American endowments
in the fall of 2008. Although Wake Forest avoided a Harvard-esque liquidity
embarrassment in that year, Dunn is still looking to refocus the endowment’s
asset allocation inside a liability-driven investment framework.
“Our allocation strategy is somewhat unique,” Dunn says, referencing
the latest image to flash on the wall, where a simple slide indicates that,
while it is not the factor-based approach that some institutions are following,
it is also not the clear-cut 60/40 allocation of years past. Thirty-six percent
of assets are in equities, which include private equity holdings; 16% are in
fixed income, both Treasury bills and higher-yielding instruments. More
interestingly, 25% are allocated toward absolute return strategies: “This
includes hedged strategies, and event-driven and macro-drive strategies,” Dunn
says, pointing out that absolute return does not always mean return,
absolutely. The remaining 23% are in inflation hedges that incorporate real
estate holdings, commodities, and inflation-linked bonds.
It is organized like this with a dual goal in
mind: to always have access to liquid capital, and to meet the liabilities of
the university instead of simply beating some other institutional portfolio.
Recalling Dunn’s alliterated dictum, these are, respectively, the “provide” and
“protect” pillars. While they are decidedly less sexy than the outperformance
seen at the Endowments of Extraordinary Size in the decade before 2008, these
pillars are, Dunn believes, the true measure of a capital pool established to
fund the university’s mission.
“Like most endowments our size, we accomplish this
by being a manager of managers,” Dunn says, turning to his next slide. On it, a
multi-colored pie chart lays out the various funds—some well-known top-decile
funds, some relatively anonymous—that Wake Forest taps into to reach its target
allocations. In total, 40 external managers handle 60 separate portfolios, a
figure that Dunn and his team would like to lower for simplicity and strategy’s
sake.
Part of this strategy is to use robust liquidity to take advantage of
illiquidity issues elsewhere. “Following the crash, you saw a lot of
institutions trying to get out of capital commitment to hedge and private
equity fund,” Dunn says, mentioning Stanford and Harvard as two prominent
examples. “It’s not that they were bad investments; they just were illiquid.”
Few would argue that opportunistically taking over these capital commitments at
pennies on the dollar would be a solid long-term investment. Dunn, planning to
do just that, certainly would not.
However, change, no matter how logical, never comes easily. To alter
momentum’s course takes a strong leader. Wake Forest is hoping that Dunn is
that leader.
One thing you should know about Jim Dunn is that he has a very nice
car. Exceptionally nice, really. Aggressive. It’s a car that says “I once lived
in California,” which Dunn in fact did as the CIO of Wilshire’s $52 billion
alternative investment portfolio. Although he also has a more practical car
now—there is occasionally snow in North Carolina, and Dunn has two young
children (family life being one reason for his switch in jobs) —Dunn still
likes to ride around in his beautiful European automobile.
The ironic thing is, Dunn is not an aggressive guy. He likes to
fly-fish. He can wax eloquent on topics of a surprising range and depth. His
pay, differing from many other endowment leaders, is conservative in that it is
based on risk adjusted, and not absolute, returns. It’s this dichotomy—a
conservative man with a liberal bent—that shines a light on his desire to alter
the very tenets of endowment investing, for if changing a university’s
entrenched asset allocation ideas is merely difficult, then altering the very
structure of the endowment and the way it interacts with the “cost-center” side
of the larger institution is almost monumental in its complexity.
In previous discussions, one endowment chief investment officer
(unassociated with Wake Forest) had railed openly against “Marxists” in his
university’s faculty and administration demanding more capital from the
endowment than it could safely afford. Luckily for Dunn, this problem seems
nonexistent at his new home. “Wake Forest has had a stable, agreed-upon payout
from our endowment to the school,” the school’s President, Dr. Nathan
Hatch—formerly of Notre Dame—had said before the presentation from Dunn.
“Unlike at many other institutions, the endowment only funds about 10% of our
operating budget, and we’re happy with that. We are not making any push to get
more money out of the endowment.”
No new capital demands does not mean stasis in the
payout structure, of course. “Currently, the spending rate is determined and
approved by the Board of Trustees, with the payout for the last couple of years
being at approximately 5% calculated over a trailing 3-year period,” Dunn says.
“The process going forward will be that a recommendation will be made to the
Board with input from development, finance, and investments incorporating
spending needs of the university, development fund raising capacity, and a
stress/scenario test on the endowment.” In conjunction with this change, Dunn
sits on the President’s Cabinet, an elite group of university officials—that
include, besides the obvious, the Provost, Athletic Director, and the VPs of
departments—that together constitute the school’s administration. He also sits
on the University Senate, the Faculty Fringe Benefits Committee, and the
Faculty Committee on Athletics. “These roles are invaluable to me in my role as
a new member of academia as well as my role as CIO,” Dunn says. “These are all
my constituents and their concerns are important factors in our models.”
To accomplish this seemingly seamless transition, Dunn has been
proactive in involving different constituencies in the process, as noted with
the first step of his 100-day plan. “I went and met with everyone,” Dunn
chuckles. “Ev-ery-one.” A major recipient of this outreach was Wake Forest’s
Business School, its main building sitting outside the window of Dunn’s
presentation room. First and foremost in this effort has been an increased
linkage between the school’s faculty and students—football players working in
the investment office, for example—and the endowment’s management team.
“If our faculty are not interested in helping, how relevant are they?”
Steve Reinemund, the Dean of the Business School and former CEO of PepsiCo,
asked later that day. “This is the real world. The market has proved that we
need more practical educators and theories. Helping with the endowment, then,
is both beneficial and essential.”
While internal change is progressing smoother than expected due to an
agreeable university elite, Dunn is also—unpleasantly, at times—attempting to
change the dynamics of external relationships as well. One target: custodians.
Although he is coy about who he is dealing with, he will say that he is
attempting to push custodial fees down by a third after years of what he
perceives to be an asymmetric relationship.
Dunn has a hard act to follow. The Wake Forest endowment, like Yale or
Harvard, has, until this point, largely been the dominion of one man. This man
is Lou Morrell.
“I tried to retire, but they said, ‘You know, what will you do?’ and I
said I was going to Wilmington, and they said ‘Why not continue to manage money
for Wake Forest?’” Morrell’s voice had boomed from the speaker a few hours
earlier, piped via telephone into the Wake Forest office from his home on the
Atlantic shore. It is he who runs the endowment’s only internally active
investment silo: The Tactical Fund, as it is known, is a $96 million pool that
Morrell exerts almost complete control over, using mutual funds to act (as the
name suggests) on a tactical level. At 71, he has spent his life in the
endowment space, having recently handed the endowment’s overall reins to Dunn
in an effort, he says, to “slow down”—although few around the Wake Forest
endowment think he will do anything of the sort.
He is a colorful man. His conversation is interspersed with
journalistic gems—“75% of investment committees in higher education are
dysfunctional!”… “The government will screw this up!”…”Private equity is
dead!”—opinionated and edgy to the point that Dunn and others are both laughing
and nervous when he speaks. Currently, Morrell—a vocal conservative worried
about the Keynesian tilt of the Obama Administration and the potential for
rampant inflation—is heavy into commodities, first and foremost of which is
gold.
“I see gold going to $1400, and it could well go to
$2000,” he says. Why? “They will never raise taxes so, to get out of this hole,
they will intentionally inflate their way out. Inflation will be slow in coming
because the economy is so weak, but you need to protect against inflation by
buying commodities and buying gold.” Morrell also believes that gold is a
currency play—“I wouldn’t get out of gold until the dollar strengthens”—and
that foreign economies (he likes Canada) are a good bet. He is nothing if not
confident: “Seventh grade economics says you shouldn’t get out of gold,” he
says, and the debate is over.
Morrell is treated with reverence around the Wake Forest endowment, a
deserved nod to his years of service and robust returns. Although he has
relinquished the larger strategic and executive role to Dunn, his $96 million
domain still is undoubtedly all his own. The transition from overall chief to
solely investing, which in many cases would be rife with tension, was seemingly
a smooth one. “Lou is a driver and, given the opportunity, he always will be, ”
says Vicki West—the Director of Trusts who works closely with Morrell—in a soft
southern twang straight out of a movie. “That said, he has transitioned into
his new role nicely.”
This arrangement—with Morrell removed from the endowment’s quotidian
calendar but still controlling a sizeable portion of its capital—highlights the
necessity for robust internal risk management structures that are increasingly
in vogue. While existing risk controls didn’t exactly make them endowment
Luddites, Wake Forest and Dunn are setting up a system that will effectively
allow Morrell to focus on alpha creation—“Lou has proved over the years that he
provides a great deal of alpha in bull markets,” Dunn says—while beta is
controlled elsewhere. Dunn is planning on accomplishing this by the creation of
three separate options accounts that will put simple put/call “collar”
strategies in place. “Overall, I would prefer that Lou make the most of his
risk budget and leave the downside protection to me,” Dunn says.
There is no silver bullet to endowment investing,” Dunn says as the
slide projector’s hum fades along with its lights. Educational politics and
policy portfolios mingle with the nuts-and-bolts of funding a school’s
liabilities, he says, and a true course will chart its way through a forest of
all these factors. The biggest threats to his success, he believes, are the
external marketplace and the generic internal politics that occupy all halls of
higher education (Hatch, the school president, echoed this theme earlier,
remarking “by their nature, CIOs, in a university environment, have a bullseye
on their backs.”)
But this story is not really about Jim Dunn. What is happening at the
Wake Forest endowment also is happening in Boston, in New Haven, in Palo Alto
and Philadelphia and Ithaca. The age of the outsized and leveraged endowment
return is over. Instead, Dunn’s ethos will be echoed around the endowment
space: protect, perform, provide. Ignoring the raison d’être of university capital—to,
in times both good and bad, provide enough money to build the school’s hard and
soft assets—will no longer be acceptable. Building walls between endowment
investment professionals and university faculty will no longer suffice. What will suffice—be required, even—is a return to basics, to
sort the confusion of the forest from the trees. Jim Dunn surely is. Others
would be well advised to follow.