Veteran Series: Mansco Perry—A Curious Mind

One of most highly regarded investment chiefs in public pensions, Perry continues to keep a cool head during turbulent times.
Art by John Jay Cabuay

Art by John Jay Cabuay

Editor’s Note: Mansco Perry III is one of the stellar CIOs who will be featured on our upcoming Power 100 list, to be released this month.

Mansco Perry III is always working out a problem in his head. For years, the investment chief at the Minnesota State Board of Investment thought about what his team would do in the event of another downturn like the 2008 financial crisis. By the time the equity markets took a nosedive in March, he had a strategy in mind to talk over with his investment staff and his trustees, mainly to increase liquidity to safeguard the portfolio. 

Those ruminations paid off for the CIO. The $105 billion Minnesota State Retirement System has yet to disclose its returns for the year, but the gains are expected to be in the double digits. Yet the investment chief is holding on to his cash. He’s expecting more market volatility in the year ahead, even if it is not as pronounced as it was in March. What’s key, Perry says, is never to sell assets on the low to meet the fund’s benefit payments or private market commitments. 

“What you want to do is have a portfolio that is going to give you the capabilities of rebounding,” he said. 

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It’s an episode that perhaps perfectly encapsulates the gifts of one of the most highly regarded CIOs in the business. Foresight. Quickness. A level head. Under Perry’s leadership, the state pension system has returned top quartile performance year after year. Among his peers, Perry is so respected by his fellow allocators that he served as the chair for the National Association of State Investment Officers, a group of 70 CIOs from the nation’s largest public pension funds, for many years. 

“I have always admired his ability to maintain a sense of calm under stressful circumstances. That coolness under pressure and having the same kind of common sense as his predecessor no doubt helped him to be highly successful as an investor,” wrote South Dakota Investment Council (SDIC) CIO Matt Clark in an email. (Clark has known Perry for more than two decades, both having worked under iconic CIOs—Perry under Howard Bicker and Clark under Steve Myers.)

“I have no doubt Mansco belongs in the hypothetical CIO hall of fame with his old boss,” Clark said. 

Early Beginnings

Perry has spent the better part of his career in the Midwest, but the allocator is originally from Newark, New Jersey. His lifelong support of the New York Yankees is perhaps one of only two major flaws his predecessor and mentor, Bicker, will admit to his protégé as having; the other is his golf game. (Bicker is a supporter of the Minnesota Twins).

“He is a leader in a lot of the various issues that come up for state fund officials,” Bicker said. “And he is just a good person and he’ll tell you exactly what he thinks. He doesn’t beat around the bush.” 

Perry has a curious mind. He knows a lot of trivia about baseball, but he also seems to know so much other trivia about, well, everything. At several points during our conversation, he asked questions, particularly related to his love of the history of US currency: Did you know that people used to carry $10,000 bills? (Apparently larger bills were banned to make it more difficult for drug traffickers to launder money.) Or, you may know there is a nickel, but have you ever heard of the half dime? (It’s lighter and smaller than both the 5-cent and 10-cent pieces we know.)

In 1990, Perry’s intelligence was clear to his interviewers, including Bicker, who first hired him at the Minnesota fund. Up till then, Perry had several stints with private and public employers in Minnesota. After graduating from Carleton College in 1974, and then getting his finance and accounting master’s degree from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, he went to work as a financial analyst at Cargill, and then as a senior control analyst at the Dayton Hudson Corporation, the company later as Target. 

Eventually, he switched over to spend a half-year at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, then worked as a director of planning and analysis at the Minnesota Department of Revenue, where he expressed interest in working at the state investment agency. A colleague set up an interview. He was hired as the assistant executive director, where he stayed for 17 years. 

He followed that with successive allocator roles. He spent almost three years as CIO at the Maryland State Retirement Agency, and then another three years at the Macalester College endowment, so that by the time he returned to Minnesota as CIO, following Bicker’s exit, Perry had a wealth of experience.

Over the years, Perry distilled the lessons from his breadth of his experience into an investment policy: Don’t underestimate the importance of doing nothing. He said allocators can easily fall into the trap of constantly tinkering with their investment portfolios, which often benefit most when they’re left alone to appreciate. 

“I’m not saying that you don’t look at markets or you don’t try and understand what new things are,” Perry said. “But what I am saying is that, be highly selective in what you do and recognize that sticking to the basics isn’t the bad thing.” 

Sticking to the Basics

And the investment chief has kept to basics. While Perry has made several changes to his portfolio allocation, the majority (50%) remains in stocks. And the majority of stocks remain in passive investments. The passive tilt is on purpose. Perry said the portfolio has gotten returns just as good from its index managers as it has from its active managers. The one exception is a currency manager the fund has recently hired to oversee its non-US equities.

Within its fixed income portfolio, the investment chief has brought the allocation up to 25% in the past year, from a 22% core plus bond portfolio, to provide the fund with more liquidity to pay its obligations. 

About 10% of the fixed income portfolio is in US Treasurys. Another 10% is put into a half core/half return-seeking fixed income portfolio (Or, half is in primarily investment grade mortgages, and the other half is in dedicated high yield, dedicated emerging markets, structured credit). The remaining 5% is put into a 2% cash allocation and 3% into short-term Treasurys. Essentially, the investment chief has structured the fixed income portfolio as a ladder that is always generating cash to pay off benefits.

The pension system has a final 25% allocation to private markets. But in the past several years, Perry says, the fund has not met the total 25% allocation, typically sticking to about a 15% true allocation to private markets. This is mainly because managers have not drawn down commitments as quickly as the fund has been generating returns on active investments. Instead, Perry puts the remaining 10% allocation into stocks that support private market vehicles. Part of that is in physical stocks. Another part is in a futures overlay the pension fund has hired a manager to oversee. 

The result is a pension fund that is flexible and able to ride out any volatility in the markets. 

“Most people would say, you know, my job is to make as much money as possible,” Perry said. “And I say, ‘No, we’re running a pension fund, our job is to make money so that we can satisfy our pension obligations,’ which means making payments and making more so that in the future we can pay off all the obligations.” 

Looking Forward 

While it seems the retirement system has made it past 2020’s issues, Perry is still deliberating many questions in his head. Right now, he’s concerned about the recovery from the pandemic, and how the impact on the markets and the economy will eventually affect his pension fund. 

How will the changes to a whole year of education affect students and their future employers? If more active workers voluntarily leave the workforce, will there be enough new workers to replace them? If the markets continue their climb to extraordinary heights, he imagines that can only serve to help investment returns, an advantage for pension beneficiaries. But if the active members of his fund continue to lose jobs, or never recover the jobs they once had, he worries that it will be more difficult for plan sponsors to make contributions in the future. It’s a concern that many in the allocator space have. 

“These are questions that I don’t think there are going to be easy answers to,” he said. “Yet you can’t ignore them.” 

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Not So Junky: Speculative Bond Yields Near 4%

After dire predictions of disaster for high-yield paper, defaults never hit the painful levels forecast last spring.


How popular are junk bonds these days? Very. High-yield is delivering much lower yields lately as investors snap the offerings up amid a large issuance of new junk. And that spells price appreciation.

The average yield on junk is approaching 4.0%, and is at the lowest point in the past quarter century, according to the ICE BofA High Yield Index.

In fact, BCA Research likes junk bonds better than supposedly less-risky investment grade corporate bonds. “We prefer high-yield over investment grade within the US corporate space, particularly the Ba credit tier,” the well-respected research firm wrote in a client note last week. The reference was to the highest speculative grade rating level from Moody’s Investors Service.

For investors, the major takeaway is that high-yield is less risky now.

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As Seth Meyer, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors, put the matter in a blog post favorable to junk, “the average credit quality of the high-yield corporate bond market has improved over the last decade.”

And how. One rule of thumb is that when the average junk yield falls beneath 5% annually, things are going swimmingly in the land of below investment grade. “The steady, collective hand of bond traders has gently guided risk expectations lower, especially since last November when the spread fell below 5 [percentage points] on a sustained basis,” pointed out Delta Investment Management, in a note.

Last March, as the pandemic walloped capital markets, junk shot up above 9%, from 5.3% at year-end 2019. The most dire showing this century was 21.8% in November 2008, amid the financial crisis, as investors unloaded their high-yield holdings, sending prices skidding. (Bond prices and yields, of course, move in opposite directions.)

The spread between Treasurys, touted as risk-free, and junk has been narrowing. It’s now 3.68 percentage points. Indeed, CCC-rated junk, the worst grade before default, is a mere 0.2 point lower than the all-junk average, BofA reported.

In the terrifying days of last spring, predictions were rife that default rates would skyrocket into the low- to mid-teens, as they did in reaction to the financial crisis. Standard & Poor’s last March predicted that junk , at 2020’s outset sporting a low default rate of 3.5%, would catapult to 12.5% at the end of the year.

Didn’t happen. In December, defaults were 6.6%. One big reason was that the Federal Reserve offered to backstop some junk, namely the so-called “fallen angels”—investment grade issues that are downgraded to high-yield. While not a lot of that fallen angel rescue buying actually occurred, the Fed’s offer was reassuring to the market.

Junk and stocks roughly track one another—while investment grade corporate bonds often may differ in performance from equities. The oft-cited reason for the junk-stock match is that, in an economic downturn, which slams stocks, junk bonds suffer out of investor concern that they will default. In other words, investors worry that companies may lack the cash flow to service their high-interest debt securities.

Not a problem now: Stocks of late are hitting new highs, as company earnings continue to improve.

What problems there are, Bank of America researchers pointed out, are limited to energy and coronavirus-exposed sectors, such transportation. So “elsewhere credit conditions are peak bullish,” the BofA report read.

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