Korea’s National Pension Fund Rebounds With 13.6% Return in 2023, Grows to $780B

A strong performancefrom equities spurred a sharp turnaround from the previous year’s 8.2% loss



South Korea’s National Pension Fund rebounded from 2022’s
8.2% investment loss with a 13.6% return in 2023, buoyed by strong returns from global and domestic equities, as its asset value rose to approximately 1,036 trillion won ($780 billion) from 889.9 trillion won a year earlier. [Source]

Global equity was the top-performing asset class for the pension giant, returning 23.89%, followed by domestic equity, which returned 22.12%. The equities’ performance was a sharp turnaround from 2022, when domestic equities weighed down the portfolio with a 22.8% loss and global equities dropped more than 12%.

Global and domestic fixed-income investments gained 8.84% and 7.40%, respectively, compared with losses of 4.9% and 5.6%, respectively, the previous year. The investment portfolio’s alternative investments earned 5.8%, down from a nearly 9% gain in 2022, while short-term assets returned 4.23%, compared with a loss of almost 1% the year before.

The pension fund also reported a three-year annualized gain of 5.04% and a 5.9% gain since its inception in 1988. 

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As of the end of 2023, the pension fund’s asset allocation was 31.5% domestic fixed income, 30.9% global equity, 15.9% alternatives, 14.3% domestic equity, 7.1% global fixed income, 0.2% short-term assets and 0.1% welfare sector and other.

Every year, the National Pension Service’s Fund Management Committee, which manages the pension giant, sets mid-term asset allocation targets with a five-year time horizon. For 2024, its target asset allocation is 33.0% global equity, 29.4% domestic fixed income, 15.4% domestic equity, 13.8% alternatives and 8.0% global fixed income.

By 2028, it is aiming to boost its asset allocation in global and domestic equities to approximately 55% combined from its current 45.2%; cut its combined allocation to domestic and global fixed income to approximately 30% from 37.4%; and trim its allocation to alternatives to approximately 15%.

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Leveraged Loan Returns Rise Even as Credit Quality Worsens

The solid economy and expected rate drops are powering the risky asset class higher, Ned Davis reports.

Leveraged loans’ performance is holding up well despite deteriorating credit quality among some of the borrowers, according to Ned Davis Research.

Total return (price increases plus interest payments) of these loans—which are made to highly indebted companies—gained 10.9% over the 12 months ending January 31, the research firm reported. The most recent report marked the eighth consecutive monthly boost in returns, wrote Ned Davis’ chief global financial strategist, Joseph Kalish, in a report.

The good tidings come shortly after the quality of lev loans, as they are known, soured in 2023, per stats from the Shared National Credit Report, a federal study group that tracks weak loans—defined as having, among other things, poor interest payment coverage and dropping collateral values.

Those troubled loans, known as “criticized assets” in banker-speak, rose 38.3% to $437 billion last year. They comprise one quarter of lev loans outstanding.

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“Before that you have to go back to the [2008 global financial crisis] to find that big of an increase,” wrote Kalish. Technology, telecom and media were the most affected sectors, Ned Davis found.

Higher interest rates and tighter profit margins at lev-loan-borrowing companies are to blame for the expansion of troubled loans, Kalish observed. Possible future rate hikes raise the risk of default, as do earnings shortfalls.

Overshadowing the problem loans are the economy’s continuing strength and the prospect of lower interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, Kalish contended. The three-quarters of lev loans that are not troubled are where the total return advances have occurred.

While the loans’ situation could well go south if the long-predicted recession ever hits, the stable condition of lev loans is good news for borrowers. Lev loans ($1.7 trillion outstanding) are 4.1% of all U.S. fixed-income instruments.

The default risk is worsening but still small. The lev loan default rate rose to 1.53% at year-end 2023, up 0.81 percentage points from the year before. But the new level still is below the five-year average default rate of 2.67%, PitchBook research shows. Still, lev loans are not as bad off as high-yield corporate bond defaults, which stood at 2.4% at the end of last year.

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