JP Morgan: With Dip in Equities, Sovereign Wealth Funds Review Traditional Asset Allocation

Sovereign wealth funds are reconsidering their investment strategies following low performance in equities against low-yielding fixed-income, a JP Morgan analysis reveals.

(September 28, 2011) — Sovereign wealth funds may soon be shifting out of equities toward alternative investments such as infrastructure and property.

“Ten-year returns on government bonds have been generally superior to those of public equities. However, these returns have been driven by large falls in bond yields,” Patrick Thomson, Global Head of Sovereign Wealth at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, said in a statement. “This fall in prospective government bond returns, combined with continued sovereign credit crisis and the ongoing volatility in equity markets, has encouraged many sovereigns to take a fresh look at the way they invest.”

Thomson continued: “Analysis of recent market events has also highlighted the fact that returns cannot be adequately modeled using normal distributions, therefore, investors need to consider the impact that ‘non-normal’ returns have on asset allocation.”

According to JP Morgan’s analysis, more than 50% of sovereign wealth fund assets are typically invested in publicly-listed equity. Meanwhile, 31% are in bonds and cash, with the remaining amount in alternatives, including hedge funds, commodities, property or infrastructure.

Want the latest institutional investment industry
news and insights? Sign up for CIO newsletters.

Thomson concluded: “As one of the largest active managers of sovereign assets in the world, we are able to identify certain investment themes that have become more pronounced in recent times. These include an increased appetite for non-traditional investments such as infrastructure, real estate, commodities and private market investments. Even with recent volatility, corporate and emerging market debt assets have provided respectable returns and we continue to see opportunities in these areas.”

JP Morgan asserted that long-term investors such as sovereigns will be able to take advantage of attractive mezzanine financing opportunities, particularly with diversified companies with strong cash flows. Within equity portfolios, the firm asserted that it is recommending US equities with strong balance sheets and attractive dividends, as well as equities that derive a lot of their returns from emerging markets.

JP Morgan’s analysis echos findings from a March report by Preqin that concluded that sovereign wealth fund assets swelled 11% in the previous 12 months to about $4 trillion, fueled largely by intensified alternative investment programs.

“Following global economic stabilization, many sovereign wealth funds that had delayed plans to diversify their holdings as a result of the economic downturn have now resumed these plans,” Sam Meakin, Managing Editor of the 2011 Preqin Sovereign Wealth Fund Review, said in a release. “Therefore we expect the proportion of sovereign wealth funds moving into the various alternative asset classes, as well as the amount invested by sovereign wealth funds in alternatives, to continue to increase in the coming year. The significant collective assets under management of sovereign wealth funds means that they represent an important potential source of capital for fund managers across all asset classes.”

With their longer-term investment horizons compared to other investors, the report found that despite the challenging financial climate, sovereign wealth funds have been better able to commit larger proportions of their portfolios to longer-term and alternative investments.



To contact the <em>aiCIO</em> editor of this story: Paula Vasan at <a href='mailto:pvasan@assetinternational.com'>pvasan@assetinternational.com</a>; 646-308-2742

Solvency II Is a Bad Idea, British Industry Group Warns

British businesses will be negatively impacted if schemes are forced into Solvency II capital requirements, the Confederation of British Industry has cautioned.

(September 28, 2011) — The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has warned that Solvency II — a new set of capital requirements — is a terrible idea for the business and economy of the United Kingdom.

“We need the UK government to step up to the plate in Brussels and stop the imposition of insurance-style solvency standards on DB pension liabilities. The government can do a lot more than it has to date,” CBI chief policy director Katja Hall said in a statement.  

Hall continued: “This issue affects all businesses with DB liabilities, whether or not they have closed the scheme. The proposal is a terrible idea, based on a wrong-headed insistence that defined benefit schemes are the same as insurance contracts. The potential effects are very significant, and would massively undermine the government’s economic goals.”

CBI estimated that schemes that comply with Solvency II would need to sell equity worth over £800 billion. “With the volatility that we have seen in international money markets, pension funds piling into more secure government bonds would push down yields and create even more pressure on sponsors as investments fail to deliver,” the release stated.

Never miss a story — sign up for CIO newsletters to stay up-to-date on the latest institutional investment industry news.

In contrast, Hector Sants, CEO of the Financial Services Authority in the UK, has previously described Solvency II as “facilitating a step change in the solvency and risk management of insurance firms in a consistent and transparent way across Europe.” The main effect that the new policy will have on the insurance industry is increased capital requirements, he noted.

Although Solvency II is not set to be implemented until 2014, its effect on pricing may be felt well before that date, according to a recent KPMG study, which found that a record £3 billion ($4.9 billion) of pension liabilities were transferred to the insurance market through pension buy-ins over the past 12 months.

A major factor that has driven the increase in buy-ins in the past year has been the impending implementation of the Solvency II. As a result, companies pursuing a buy-in as a de-risking option will look to act quickly to take advantage of the favorable market.



To contact the <em>aiCIO</em> editor of this story: Paula Vasan at <a href='mailto:pvasan@assetinternational.com'>pvasan@assetinternational.com</a>; 646-308-2742

«