Investors Propose Remedy for Korea Discount

Group says Korean equities have ‘chronically underperformed’ for seven years.

A group of shareholders led by investment management firm Dalton Investments is appealing to the $578.7 billion Korea National Pension Service (NPS) and the Korean government to implement initiatives to improve the returns of the country’s equities market, which it says has “chronically underperformed” over the past seven years.  

In a letter to the NPS and the National Assembly of the Republic of Korea, the investors laid out ways in which the country can turn around “one of the worst- performing and most undervalued markets in the world.”

The investors pointed out that over the past seven years, the total shareholder return of The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) was just 25%, despite corporate profits increasing 80% over the same period. They said the NPS, which owns approximately 7% of the Korean equities market, has suffered greatly as a result of this sustained underperformance.

“The issue, however, extends to the entire country of Korea, which is facing continuously slowing economic growth and the highest unemployment rate since 2001,” said the letter. “While Korean companies have generated a great amount of value, this value has not been effectively transferred to Korean households and the economy.”

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The investors group proposed actions to help improve the so-called “Korea discount” and shareholder returns. The Korea discount refers to the undervaluing of South Korean stocks by global investors due to factors that burden the country’s economy, such as threats and nuclear and missile tests by North Korea.

They said that the underperformance in the Korean equities market is systemic, and is caused by a tendency of corporate management teams to “pursue misguided capital allocation strategies, which inevitably ignore the interests of minority shareholders.”

According to the group, Korean companies are not prioritizing return on capital, risk-adjusted returns, and basic minority shareholder interests. They recommend that all capital allocation decisions be measured against the “next best alternative,” including share repurchases and dividend payouts, with the goal of maximizing long-term economic profit for all shareholders.

“It has become all too common for Korean companies to accumulate what amounts to a treasure trove of assets, including cash that sits idle and unproductive on balance sheets,” said the letter. “Given no better alternative, Korean companies should return this capital to shareholders so that capital can be allocated to other opportunities. Instead, Korean companies hoard cash.”

This cash hoarding has resulted in significantly below-average payouts, according to the investors. They point to Taiwan as a country that is economically similar to Korea, but has an average dividend payout ratio of 58% compared to 17% for Korea. The group says that Taiwan’s total shareholder return was three times more than that of Korea for the past seven years.

The group said that if structural changes are not implemented that enable companies to achieve greater returns, the amount individuals contribute to the national pension fund will have to increase by as much as 13% in the long term, and up to 38% in the “very long term.”

The group’s recommendations include implementing better capital allocation strategies and aligning management incentives with those of all shareholders; better alignment of tax rates to encourage fairer practices, and encouraging an automatic investment system for retirement pension as the default option.

“If action is not taken now, this problem will only become more pronounced during a period of low growth, fierce competition, high unemployment, aging demographics, and greater wealth inequality,” said the letter. “As the largest shareholder of Korean equities, NPS has the power to push public companies to adopt better practices … [and] the ability to drive and lead this change.”

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Top Ratings Agency Slams Illinois Gov.’s Budget Proposal

Pritzker’s plan to bolster the underfunded public pension system via new taxes ‘punts’ on meaningful change, S&P says.

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker’s budget proposal has been met with the disdain of a major credit ratings agency, which says the fiscal plan postpones needed structural reforms.

Pritzker’s $39 billion spending blueprint called for a graduated income tax and other levies to help shore up the Prairie State’s ballooning pension deficit. But the income tax change would require altering the state constitution, an iffy proposition. And the plan lowers the state’s contributions to the pension system by extending the funding deadline by seven years. Plus, it calls for selling unidentified state assets and issuing $2 billion more in bonds.

S&P Global Ratings, however, is not on board with Pritzker’s decision. In a report, the ratings organization said the proposal “precariously balances the current budget, but punts measures to address fiscal progress to future years.”

The ratings company added that the budget “prioritizes service solvency at the expense of lower pension contributions” without making any “meaningful progress” at handling the state’s $7.9 billion bill backlog or projected out-year deficits.

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Since Pritzker’s pension element is reliant on moving unidentified assets into the plans with no savings from the transfers noted in the 2020 budget plan, the agency is concerned that the constitutional changes needed for this to happen are a far from safe bet, and condemns the practice as  “status quo” for the state of Illinois.

“Illinois has a track record of leaving difficult fiscal choices to future budgets, and to the extent that reforms do not materialize to offset weaker pension funding, the fiscal 2020 budget could weaken the state’s credit trajectory,” said the report.

S&P added that the state could raise taxes and delay bond payments to stop a “near-term liquidity crisis and service insolvency.” In S&P’s view, “While Illinois retains broad authority to raise more revenue, the state has yet to demonstrate it has the political will to do so.”

The report also went on to call the 2020 fiscal budget “dubious” on the grounds of its reliance on sports betting and marijuana legalization, which may take longer to become a reality than Illinois needs. And S&P observed that positive revenue expectations in the face of slowing US growth cannot afford to be wrong as the state would “quickly exhaust its 0.4% budgeted surplus and has minimal cushion to weather additional fiscal pressures that would accompany an economic downturn.” According to S&P, “If it adopts the budget in its current form, it remains at risk of repeating a pattern of putting off hard choices while eroding pension funding.”  Lastly, the agency said that if the state can’t get it together, “its credit trajectory could slip.”

Nevertheless, S&P said its criticism of Pritzker did not warrant any action on its near-junk BBB-rating for Illinois. 

“The governor proposed a realistic plan to serve as a bridge to the future, with the ultimate goal of a fair tax system that will transform state finances – including pensions – in a momentous way,” said Jordan Abudayyeh, a spokeswoman for Pritzker.  “No element of the comprehensive approach can be viewed in isolation and Governor Pritzker is ready to work with the legislature to put the state back on a path towards fiscal stability. The alternative to this plan is doing more of the same: namely, raising taxes on the middle class. The mess in Illinois was created over many years, which is why Governor Pritzker is offering a long-term solution.”

Illinois’ public pension system is 36% funded, according to a study from Pew Charitable Trusts.

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