Institutions Significantly Shift to Global Equity Markets

New research from Goldman Sachs shows pension funds and other institutional investors based in developed markets could raise their emerging markets equity weighting in the next two decades.

(September 10, 2010) — According to new research from Goldman Sachs, pension funds and other institutional investors based in developed markets could increase their emerging market equity weightings to 18% in the next 20 years from the current level of 6%.

“Over the next two decades, the emerging equity markets are likely to increase substantially in absolute terms and overtake developed markets in terms of capitalization,” the authors wrote. “The primary drivers are rapid economic growth and the maturing of equity markets that are at earlier stages of development.” The authors note that China might surpass the US in equity market capitalization terms by 2030 and become the single largest equity market in the world. According to Goldman’s research, China’s market cap of mainland- and Hong Kong-listed equities could rise to $41 trillion, or a 28% share of global equity, by 2030 from $5 trillion, or a 11% share. In contrast, the US equity market could rise more slowly to $34 trillion, or a 23% share of global equity, in 20 years from $14 trillion, or a 32% share, now, they write.

The 48-page report, titled “EM Equity in Two Decades: A Changing Landscape,” stated that by 2030, emerging markets equity capitalization could rise to $80 trillion, or a 55% share of global equity. Meanwhile, developed markets could rise to $66 trillion, or a 45% share of global equity. The authors estimate that the overall global equity market would rise to $146 trillion by 2030, compared to its present value of $44 trillion — 69%, or $30 trillion, from developed markets and 31%, or $14 trillion, from emerging markets.



To contact the <em>aiCIO</em> editor of this story: Paula Vasan at <a href='mailto:pvasan@assetinternational.com'>pvasan@assetinternational.com</a>; 646-308-2742

Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund Buys Eurozone Bonds

Norway's finance minister indicated that the country has bought peripheral European bonds.

(September 10, 2010) — Norway’s government pension fund, the second-largest sovereign wealth fund in the world with around $450 billion under management, has indicated that it has purchased Greek debt and bonds issued by the governments of Spain, Italy and Portugal.

The purchase reflects positive news for the eurozone markets after a volatile week. A spokesman for Norway’s central bank, which runs the sovereign wealth fund, told the Financial Times: “We are buying the bonds of the peripheral eurozone countries and stepped up the purchases in the second quarter.” The world’s second-biggest private bond fund, the Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO), has said it remains hesitant to buy peripheral debt as a result of the risks over a Greet default, the FT reported.

Norway Finance Minister Sigbjoern Johnsen said Norway’s long-term investing strategy would guard it from losses. He has said he supports the strategy of stocking up on Greek debt, as well as bonds of Spain, Italy and Portugal, which contributed to a 3.4% loss on European fixed income in the second quarter, compared with gains on bonds in Asia and the Americas. Bloomberg reported that the fund’s CEO, Yngve Slyngstad, revealed the Greek bond holdings in an August interview.

Earlier, in an interview with ai5000 featured in June, Slynstad commented on bond purchases, but made no indication of this move to purchase eurozone bonds. “We have 62.4% of our portfolio invested in equities, so we’re not going to increase our equity purchases in 2010 to any significant degree,” he stated. “We are reducing our bond exposure and increasing our real estate allocation from 0% to 5% over the course of the next two years…In one sense, it’s a challenging environment for investing. We have to be prepared for it to be highly volatile. At the same time, we are quite confident with our investments and portfolio. Confident but cautious.”

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To contact the <em>aiCIO</em> editor of this story: Paula Vasan at <a href='mailto:pvasan@assetinternational.com'>pvasan@assetinternational.com</a>; 646-308-2742

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