Fitch Revises Down Public Pension Discount Rate, Cites Slow Growth

On average, 1% drop in investment return assumption will bring about 11% increase in total pension liabilities.

Fitch Ratings will be discounting pension liabilities of public pension systems at a 6% investment return rate, rather than the 7% the rating agency was using previously, based on its views relating to slow economic growth that does not justify the higher rate of investment return.

Douglas Offerman, senior director, Fitch Ratings, noted, “US growth has been slower and more incremental over the current economic expansion than over longer time horizons. There is little evidence to suggest the economy will accelerate to previous levels of growth in the near term. Fitch believes that pensions will be hard-pressed to achieve their long-term growth expectations in the current economic context.”  

Fitch believes “the 6% return assumption, and increased total pension liability, better reflect the magnitude of the burden posed by pensions.” The New York ratings agency will apply the change to its input for assessing the pension liabilities of state and local governments.

It seems that for the 1% drop in Fitch’s investment return assumption, on average, these entities will see about a 11% hike in their total pension liabilities. Most of them will see their pension liabilities increase in the 9% to 15% range. There will also be a small number of state and local governments that are outliers, whose pension liabilities will rise beyond this expected range, based on their individual pension system characteristics.

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US growth has been slow in recent years, and feeling the impact of an aging population, reduced participation in the workforce, productivity that hasn’t risen, and restrained growth in wages. The economy last went through this sort of slow growth in the 1970s and 1980s.

Fitch finds that challenged pension systems are investing more in “broader ranges” of equity, fixed-income, and alternative assets so as to preserve their long-term returns in today’s environment of low market interest rates. However, these investments are also more volatile and expose the systems to higher risk.

“Among some outliers, exposure to unusually risky asset classes is well beyond what is typical for pensions with very long-term liabilities, and ultimately raises the risk that pension sponsors and participating governments will have to absorb the heightened risk of return underperformance,” according to Fitch.

The ratings agency also expects that the lower 6% discount rate serves to better gauge other risks associated with a defined benefit pension plan. For instance, actuarial updates could make for upward revisions to mortality expectations, and government policies could impact hiring levels, benefits, and contribution trends. These sorts of changes could expose state and local governments to higher liabilities and contributions.

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Vermont Bill Creates Retirement Plan for Small Businesses

Volunteer program is aimed at companies with 50 or fewer employees.

The Vermont General Assembly has passed a bill to create a voluntary public retirement option for small businesses known as the Green Mountain Secure Retirement Plan.

The plan will be based on a multiple employer plan model, and open to businesses with 50 employees or fewer that do not offer a retirement plan, as well as to self-employed workers. If an employer adopts the program, auto-enrollment of employees will occur, but employees will have the choice to opt out.

“The passage of this bill will allow the state to make substantive steps towards implementing a voluntary retirement program for Vermonters who currently lack access to employer-sponsored retirement plans,” said Vermont State Treasurer Beth Pearce in a statement. “This program will broaden the opportunity for more Vermonters to be better prepared for retirement and in doing so strengthen the economic vitality of our state.”

According to an AARP report cited by Pearce, some 104,000 Vermont residents, or 45% of the state’s private sector employees, do not have access to employer-sponsored retirement plans. “I look forward to working with businesses, advocacy groups, and other stakeholders to implement a program that works for all Vermonters,” she said.

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The committee that advised the legislature on the bill recommended a three-year check-in after the start of the program, when an analysis of participation and potential strategies to increase participation would take place. The program is expected to be implemented in January 2019.

The program will initially be supported by fees that would be paid by the program’s participants, but allows for the possibility for employer contributions in the future. It also said that until sufficient assets have been accumulated, program costs will exceed revenues during the startup phase.

The Treasurer’s Office will have financial service providers subsidize the startup cost in exchange for a longer-term contract, essentially loaning its own capital to the program. If the committee determines that additional financial support is necessary for start-up and/or ongoing costs, the Treasurer will inform the general assembly prior to any decision on implementation.

Photo by: cglade

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