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Brian Pellegrino, CIO of one of the last open
defined benefit funds in America, isn’t afraid to reiterate UPS’s decision to
forego liability-driven investing (LDI): “We do not feel that LDI is an
appropriate strategy at this time.” A bold move, as LDI has now infiltrated
most corporate pension plans’ investment strategies to the extent that it’s
almost second nature.
But Pellegrino may be smart to play the black sheep
among a herd of corporate pensions. UPS is one of the healthiest funds above
$20 billion. It boasts an almost 91% funding ratio with $27 billion in assets
to its name, while liabilities total only 30% of the corporation’s market
capitalization. Pellegrino and his team have high expectations—8.75% returns
over a three- to five-year horizon—but they easily surpassed the estimate in
2011 with gains of 9.4% amid a flat market.
“Some characteristics drive us to build a
materially different portfolio than most corporate plans,” the CIO explains.
Rather than one specific strategy or another, Pellegrino bows to the need to
allocate assets and construct a portfolio in the best interests of UPS and its
employees.
The Atlanta-based courier service has the right—and
rare—factors in place to excuse itself from liability matching, according to
consultants and managers familiar with the terrain. “There’s only a minority of
funds that can afford to do it,” says Scott McDermott, managing director of the
global portfolio solutions group at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Those plans
that “are still open and have a financially strong corporate sponsor, for whom
the plan liability is not material to the parent company’s financials, tend to
be risk takers.”
So how did UPS acquire the ability to take more
risks than other corporate pensions? The story begins with the parcel workers.
A particularly young population of participants and fewer retirees put
liability duration at somewhere between 17 and 18 years, with benefit payouts
peaking after 2030. The firm also profits from a smaller annual benefit-payout
ratio relative to assets than is typical, shelling out just a bit more than 3%
compared with its peers’ average ratio of 9%.
“The long horizon allows us to gear more toward
generating sufficient returns to meet future liabilities, rather than
protecting assets to pay our current obligations,” Pellegrino says. “We’re
somewhat uncertain of our future liabilities as our employees are still
accruing benefits.”
UPS’s focus isn’t to put out fires, but to ensure the plan can weather all storms
to deliver payouts on time, every time. Pellegrino is confident in the
financials of his fund: They have enough capital to cushion and manage a
potential hiccup, he contends. This is largely due to its promising
obligations-to-market capitalization ratio. “Our unfunded liability relative to
market cap is small. Since we moved to mark-to-market, we have become less
concerned about short-term variability.”
Other corporate plans aren’t so stable or lucky.
General Motors initiated a $26 billion pension-risk transfer deal with
Prudential last year, surely due to its large liabilities compared with market
capitalization and the potentially devastating impact of pension shortfalls on
corporate financials.
“It’s a very individual decision,” says Joe Nankof, partner at Rocaton
Investment Advisors, on whether or not to implement an LDI program. For some,
“there are situations where it makes less sense to de-risk and more sense to
continue to take risk for the purpose of generating returns.”
That’s exactly what UPS strives to do. Less concerned with matching
liabilities to assets, UPS allocates far less to fixed income than other
corporate plans—27% versus an average of 40%—and predominantly to long-duration
treasury and corporate bonds. But return-seeking assets also have a place in
the fund’s unconventional fixed-income portfolio, including high-yield bank
loans, global bonds, and emerging market debt. With the space freed up by its
modest bond holdings, UPS allocates an extra 6% to 8% to alternatives and
public equities, with an overweight to US equity.
Pellegrino says the plan’s public equity portfolio
is likewise not your average corporate pension stock bucket. “We believe the
traditional market-cap benchmarks are flawed for various reasons, so we’ve
created our own custom indexes that provide specific exposures, such as global
consumer staples, managed or minimum volatility, and other risk-based metrics,”
he says. “We’ve also added highly concentrated benchmark-agnostic managers who
can focus on absolute, rather than relative, performance.”
The pension plan originally operated under a
traditional investment structure—allocating assets, selecting managers, then
assigning them a benchmark to outperform. It wasn’t until UPS was hit hard by
the financial crisis that Pellegrino and his investment team thought to revamp
the system. “2008 was extremely painful,” he admits. “We found that managers
who invested aggressively or took excessive risk got hurt, and that had a huge
impact on our portfolio.”
The revamping process began with building out the
investment team. After some staff turnover in 2010, Pellegrino successfully
grew his staff from three to 15, all focusing on a group trust structure under
a single-employer Taft-Hartley plan. By now, the team has invested in secondary
and co-investing opportunities in real estate and private equity, as well as
liquid alternatives. “We’re looking for investments where we can understand
what is driving returns, and with a runoff somewhere between three and seven
years,” Pellegrino explains. “We are comfortable locking up assets for three to
five years, especially if we know with some certainty what the outcome of that
investment looks like.”
These strategies are paying off. According to
company data, UPS had well exceeded 100% of its annual 8.75% return objective
by the end of the third quarter of 2012, gaining more than $2.2 billion.
So what’s a CIO to do when he’s done more than he
planned to do? “Once we cross the 100% threshold, we’re not as concerned about
generating more [returns] as we are about protecting what we’ve earned for the
year,” Pellegrino says. But funded status isn’t a priority for UPS, he
continues. Governmental Accounting Standards Board statements put UPS past full
funding, and mark-to-market accounting no longer considers shortfalls and
adjustments based on pension performance in the operating profits and loss
statements.
This kind of viewpoint provokes concern in some.
“There’s a myth out there that if you’re a long-term investor, you can count on
actually getting the high expected return assumption—but economists universally
point out that this myth is not true,” says Barton Waring, an economist and the
former CIO of investment strategy and policy at Barclays Global Investors. “It
doesn’t matter how long your horizon is. You still need to hedge your liability
in order to protect the safety of the plan’s benefits and to protect
shareholders from large, unpleasant surprises.”
Others assert that abstaining from LDI may not be a
reckless choice. “The decision to not pursue LDI doesn’t necessarily mean
you’re [failing to] look at pension risk in a sophisticated risk-factor framework,”
Rocaton’s Nankof says. “It’s about being deliberate about not matching assets
and liabilities and taking that risk.”
Pellegrino understands this idea: “We realize that
there will be years we do not achieve our goal of 8.75%. If you pay attention
to the value of the assets and the investment opportunity in essence, you will
capture the LDI or hedging component naturally.”
By the end of 2012, UPS’s hedging ratio was
hovering above 20%—just enough to protect its assets and provide a level of
flexibility and freedom to pursue riskier investments. “When you think of LDI, you
think of portfolios’ hedge ratios and specific glide paths on when to increase
those ratios,” Pellegrino says. “We give ourselves a tremendous amount of
flexibility to move within asset classes and across the portfolio. We also put
a lot of effort into evaluating the risk inherent in any investment, always
focusing on finding the best risk-adjusted returns.”
If UPS continues to
deliver investment returns as reliably as it does parcels, then flexibility
isn’t a liability for Pellegrino and his team.