David Swensen, Yale’s Iconic Endowment Chief, Dies at 67

He pioneered the push into alternative assets, now popular among institutional investors.

David Swensen

David Swensen, Yale’s legendary endowment chief, died Wednesday night at age 67 of cancer. In his 36 years at the fund’s helm, he pioneered the push into alternatives, with less reliance on traditional stocks and bonds.

Thanks to this strategy, Swensen, a Yale-trained economist, increased the university’s endowment to $31.2 billion as of 2020, from $1 billion when he arrived in 1985 after a stint on Wall Street.

The so-called “Yale Model” was adopted by many other endowments and influenced the current trend of pension funds to move their money into the likes of private equity, hedge funds, timberland, and other alternative investments. Most recently, alts accounted for about 60% of Yale’s portfolio.

“He was a tremendous leader; he has helped so many other brilliant CIOs under his tutelage,” said Chris Ailman, investment chief at the California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS). “It’s just a testament to his tremendous strengths. He wrote the book for our industry and it’s a sad day to see him go.”

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He always had a contrarian streak, which sometimes landed him in trouble—such as his insistence on keeping fossil fuel investments. Swensen argued that it’s better to fight climate change by having a say in energy company policy as a shareholder than by simply divesting, which is in vogue throughout academia. In 2018, he added exposure to cryptocurrency, by taking positions in two venture funds dealing in the digital denominations, one of the first major financial players to do so.

“David served our university with distinction,” wrote the university’s president, Peter Salovey, in a statement announcing Swensen’s death. “He was an exceptional colleague, a dear friend, and a beloved mentor to many in our community.”

Swensen ranked No. 1 on CIO’s most recent list of top endowment CIOs and just this spring was named to CIO’s Power 100 list of top allocators. A host of his proteges went on to head funds elsewhere, such as Andrew Golden, now Princeton’s endowment chief.

Indeed, Swensen himself is a product of Yale. Having completed his Ph.D. there in 1980—entitled A Model for the Valuation of Corporate Bonds—he went to Wall Street, working for Salomon Brothers, then Lehman Brothers. But his thesis advisers, including James Tobin, reminded him he had pledged to return to Yale. Swensen famously took an 80% pay cut to run the school’s endowment.

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Sell in May? Well, Maybe Rebalance, Say Two Market Sages

The fact remains that stocks historically don’t do much from now till October.

No doubt about it, the warm months of May through October are the worst for the stock market, hence the old saying: “Sell in May and go away.”

While liquidating an entire equities portfolio may be absurd for institutional investors, there is a case to be made for cashing in some gains, or for rebalancing out of overweight hot sectors, during what historically is a slow spell.

To be sure, pulling back in 2020’s May-October stretch wasn’t the best idea. That six-month period last year saw the S&P 500 run up 12.6%. That’s roughly two-thirds of its rise for all of 2020.

Nevertheless, going back to 1950 shows a clear pattern for punk returns in the May-October span, according to Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial’s chief market strategist. The index delivered just 1.7% on average, versus the flip side: November through April, which was the best period, clocking 7.1%.

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To Hilary Kramer, CIO for Kramer Capital Research, the upcoming summertime is “a great opportunity to review your positions, make any adjustments, and then retreat to the sidelines for the next few months. … Don’t sell in May, but feel free to go away.”

Why is that? The just-completed first quarter earnings cycle had good growth, but the numbers didn’t wow investors. The “Wall Street response was neutral at best,” she wrote in a client note. “When the best earnings growth since 2010 spawns a yawn, it’s pretty clear that perfection is priced in.” 

Meantime, more Washington stimulus and President Joe Biden’s big infrastructure program aren’t happening in the near term, if ever, she observed. That means the Washington-driven manna to consumers has run its course. for the moment. She found “not a lot of time left this season for upside surprises.” And she added there are worrisome likelihoods for plenty of “risk factors between now and July: COVID-19 relapse. Tax fear. Inflation spike. General malaise.”

By the same token, Jeff Carbone, managing partner for Cornerstone Wealth, counseled to take some profits from the strong growth sectors that have had impressive runs in 2021. Overweight in technology, energy, financial, or consumer discretionary? Whittle that down and channel the proceeds to defensive positions in sectors such as utilities, communications, and staples, he contended.

He advised to watch for the signs that inflation continues to rise and costs of goods increase. At the same time, Carbone said, zero in on where growth or earnings start to decline.

“There looks to be some runway left for growth and room for the markets to run,” he declared, “but it may be a shorter runway, and we are landing in LaGuardia not Denver.”

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