CalPERS Interim CIO Dan Bienvenue Joins CAIA Board

The Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst Association announced that the interim chief investment officer of the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, Dan Bienvenue, has begun a three-year term on the CAIA board of directors.

“I couldn’t be more personally pleased or professionally grateful to have Dan join the board,” said CAIA Association President John Bowman in a LinkedIn post. “His insights, counsel and character will be indispensable to CAIA Association future strategy.”

Those currently serving on the CAIA Association board are:

Dan Bienvenue, interim CIO, CalPERS;
Jayne Bok, head of Asia investments, WTW;
Greg Brown, professor of finance, University of North Carolina Kenan-Flagler;
Elizabeth Burton, managing director and client investment strategist, Goldman Sachs;
Anthony (Tony) Cowell, former partner, KPMG;
Graeme Griffiths, trustee, Aegon Master Trust;
William (Bill) J. Kelly, CEO, CAIA Association;
William Ma, CIO, Grow Investment Group;
Elena Manola-Bonthond, CIO, CERN Pension Fund;
Thomas (Tom) R. Robinson, president and CIO, Robinson Global Investment Management; and
Valerie J. Sill, president and CEO, Dupont Capital Management and chair of the board.

“Dan brings a unique and valuable perspective to our efforts, and we are very pleased to welcome him to the board,” said Valerie Sill, chair of the CAIA Association board of directors and president and CEO of Dupont Capital Management, in a press release. “Being able to draw on the insights and experience of the CIO for one of the world’s largest allocators makes us that much better positioned as we continue to work on shaping the industry on behalf of investors.”

Want the latest institutional investment industry news and insights? Sign up for CIO newsletters. 

Bienvenue has served as interim CIO of CalPERS since Nicole Musicco’s resignation in September. He has spent 20 years at CalPERS, most recently as deputy CIO and previously as managing investment director of global equity. He earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of California, Davis and is both a CFA and a CAIA charter holder.

“It’s an honor to join the board of directors at the CAIA Association, an organization whose mission closely aligns with my values, and with what we do at CalPERS. We are both devoted to transparency and integrity in investing, and focused on investment returns, while also doing right by the industry and world. I look forward to learning from the talented and diverse team of professionals at CAIA, as well as contributing to the cause in whatever way I can.” Bienvenue said in a statement provided to CIO.

5 Ways to Supercharge a Portfolio Against a Blah Tomorrow, per CAIA

CAIA, SBAI Form Global Alts Partnership

Tags: Anthony Cowell, CAIA, CalPERS, Dan Bienvenue, Elena Manola-Bonthond, Elizabeth Burton, Graeme Griffiths, Greg Brown, Jayne Bok, Nicole Musicco, Thomas R. Robinson, Valerie J. Sill, William J. Kelly, William Ma

After a terrific showing in 2023, the market’s opening sessions for this year—the S&P 500 lost 0.57% Tuesday, and Wednesday is off to a down start—were enervating. Sure, one or two trading days do little to foretell the coming year. And if history is any guide, 2024 should be a good market year. Not a blowout one, mind you, just a good one.

How much? At least 10%. Not as pulse-quickening as 2023’s 24.2% surge for the S&P 500, yet not too shabby. That is what research from Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA (Center for Financial Research and Analysis), indicated.

Since 1946, the first year after World War II, when the market had an annual rise of 20% or more, the S&P 500 rose an average 10% the following year, according to Stovall. In the second years, the index was in positive territory 80% of the time. Thus, he wrote in a research note, “Good years tend to follow great years with an above-average return and frequency of gain.”

Stovall did not opine why this follow-on effect occurs. Perhaps the momentum of the 20%-plus first year was strong enough to keep investor psychology buoyant into the second year. Or perhaps the first year’s euphoria led investors to assume correctly that any bad thing—such as that sure-fire buzzkill, a recession—would not appear to blight the second year. For whatever reason, the second year tends to have what Stovall called “a lower trajectory” than the first one, meaning year two returned less.

Never miss a story — sign up for CIO newsletters to stay up-to-date on the latest institutional investment industry news. 

The market’s mood for the year ahead, Tuesday notwithstanding, is positive. As Stovall wrote, investors are hopeful “that 2024 will deliver equally impressive returns, now that a slowing economy will likely lead to a soft landing, rather than an outright recession, and the Fed is expected to start cutting rates in the first half.”

Indeed, low unemployment, abating inflation and the Federal Reserve’s decision to end its tightening campaign are all heartening signs. The pros, however, are not anticipating anything near 10% for 2024. Wall Street prognosticators are cautiously expecting muted, or perhaps even flat, growth for the S&P 500 this year.

Over the long pull, the odds tilt toward positive market returns, Stovall pointed out—since 1946, the S&P 500 has been in the black 71% of the time, for an average 6.9% gain. Given that periods of economic expansion have outnumbered those of contraction during that period, this result makes sense, in Stovall’s view. Tellingly, that 6.9% gain fits in with economist Jeremy Siegel’s classic finding that stocks have returned 6.7% annualized since 1802.

To be sure, the future is unknowable and stock forecasts are all too often wrong. Stovall’s upbeat assessment of 2024’s prospects noted that history can be a “guide,” but “it’s never gospel.”