Bond Guru Gundlach Hoards Cash

Jeffrey Gundlach's DoubleLine Capital is favoring cash over almost all investments including corporate bonds.

(August 29, 2011) — Jeffrey Gundlach’s DoubleLine Capital says it is favoring cash over nearly all investments, foreseeing 10-year Treasuries offering a buying opportunity if yields rise above 3.5%.

“I want fear,” Gundlach, the founder and head of Los Angeles-based DoubleLine, who previously co-managed the TCW Total Return Bond Fund, said in a recent telephone interview with Bloomberg. “I want to buy things when people are afraid of it, not when they think that it’s a gift being handed to them,” he said of speculative-grade bonds.

He added during the interview: “Something funny is going on in the world of corporate bonds now — something looks broken. It seems there’s less willingness all of a sudden to be lending money to corporations, maybe because the absolute yields are so low. You’re starting to see that saturation point.”

In a previous interview with the news service, Gundlach said: “We are looking for a more severe down move in prices, for a better level to buy…To hold cash you have to have a conviction that prices of something that you’d otherwise own will go down, which is exactly what happened in June.”

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According to Bloomberg, DoubleLine has attracted about $14 billion since its December 2009 inception.

Gundlach’s preference for cash echos recent assertions made by James Montier, a London-based portfolio manager with GMO. A flexible allocation allowing timely moves into cash gives an asset owner the best tail-risk protection, he asserted in a July paper. Institutional investors concerned about protection from black swan events often overlook the values of a flexible cash allocation, Montier argued. Other hedges like options/contingent claims and strategies that are negatively correlated with tail-risk simply do not provide the same level of protection.

Cash is “the oldest, easiest, and most underrated source of tail-risk protection,” claimed Montier in the paper, titled “An Ode to the Joy of Cash.” “If one is worried about systemic illiquidity events or drawdown risks, then what better way to help than keeping some dry powder in the form of cash—the most liquid of all assets.”

A flexible cash allocation provides the best tail-risk strategy because it minimizes what Montier called “Valuation Risk” and “Fundamental Risk.” Valuation risk is the risk connected with overvalued assets. According to Montier, cash is a much better investment than sticking with overvalued assets. “In our view it is better to hold cash and deal with the limited real erosion of capital caused by inflation, rather than hold overvalued assets and run the risk of the permanent impairment of capital.” With fundamental risk, or the risk of “write-downs to intrinsic value,” cash is a good hedge because it “is a more robust asset than bonds, inasmuch as it responds better under a wider range of outcomes.” Thus, an allocation to cash can increase a portfolio’s resistance to varied fundamental risks.

Gunchlach’s public affection for cash comes as he has been engaged in a lawsuit for allegedly stealing trade secrets from his former employer, TCW. He has testified that he did not need the company’s data to start his rival firm.



To contact the <em>aiCIO</em> editor of this story: Paula Vasan at <a href='mailto:pvasan@assetinternational.com'>pvasan@assetinternational.com</a>; 646-308-2742

Catastrophe Bonds Attract Scrutiny in Wake of Hurricane

The monitoring of Hurricane Irene's impact on catastrophe bonds continues.

(August 29, 2011) — The catastrophe bond sector — in which insurers transfer risks associated with natural disasters to capital markets investors — has attracted heightened attention in the wake of Hurricane Irene.

AIR Worldwide, a catastrophe-risk modeling firm, estimated that insured losses in the Caribbean from Irene have already reached between $500 million and $1.1 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported.

On Friday, as the storm was approaching the East Coast, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said in a statement: “Given the uncertainty of where the hurricane ultimately makes landfall, its subsequent course, and the resulting covered losses, we will not take any rating actions until after the event has passed through the US.”

According to Willis Capital Markets & Advisory, the cat bond sector is exposed to nearly 70% of US hurricane risk, Reuters reported. Bill Dubinsky, managing director of the firm, said last week that as reports from weather forecasters emerged on Hurricane Irene’s intensity, some investors are attempting to “trade in and out of bonds as well as using the parallel Live Cat market to rebalance their positions.”

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Catastrophe bonds have also attracted heightened interest from pension funds, exemplified by Europe’s second-biggest insurer revealing in March that its funds investing in catastrophic bonds may more than triple. Axa said that its funds investing in cat bonds and other insurance-linked securities may balloon as insurers manage their exposure to natural disasters by transferring potential losses to investment funds. Christophe Fritsch, head of insurance-linked securities at Axa Investment Managers, the asset-management unit of Paris-based Axa, told Global Pensions that he has witnessed a spike in the number of meetings he has had with chief investment officers of pension funds, which will likely result in higher investments from those funds. Fritsch said he expects demand from pension funds will drive new issuance of cat bonds up to $7 billion this year.

In February, Swiss Re said it obtained $350 million in protection through the Successor X Ltd. catastrophe bond program, representing the fourth time the reinsurer has used the program to transfer risks covering North Atlantic hurricane and California earthquakes. Swiss Re noted that the transaction adds an additional $305 million of notes to cover itself against hurricane losses in some US. states and Puerto Rico and California earthquakes until December 2014.



To contact the <em>aiCIO</em> editor of this story: Paula Vasan at <a href='mailto:pvasan@assetinternational.com'>pvasan@assetinternational.com</a>; 646-308-2742

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