Biggest Concern for Bond Investors: Sovereign Debt Problems

According to Fitch’s latest European senior fixed-income investor survey, Europe's sovereign debt crisis remains a major worry with 64% of respondents, up from 56%, expecting developed market sovereigns to face their biggest refinancing challenge.

(May 25, 2011) — Europe’s sovereign debt crisis has remained a major worry for investors, according to Fitch’s latest European senior fixed-income investor survey, obtained by Global Pensions.

The survey, conducted between March 31 and May 2, polled the views of managers of an estimated $4 trillion of fixed-income assets.

The biggest concern for bond investors, the survey showed, is Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, with 64% of respondents, up from 56%, expecting developed market sovereigns to endure the biggest refinancing challenges.

The worries echo recent sentiments by Harvard professor of economics Gita Gopinath, who said during an investor forum that pensions — typically large bondholders — may be forced to take a loss on their investments as a result of the European sovereign debt crisis. At the Dublin-based forum — titled Adjusting to New Realities — among Europe’s largest institutional investors and asset managers responsible for the investment of more than €1 trillion of funds, 75% of those in attendance saw a high likelihood of default in the Eurozone within three years. Gopinath asserted that the solution would likely be for bondholders, namely pension funds, to take some form of a loss on their investments, “given the sheer scale of the debt amounts involved.”

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Fitch’s study additionally showed that inflation concerns continued to rise, with 68% of respondents seeing inflation risks as high, up from 55% in the previous survey.

Furthermore, the study revealed a growing concern among managers over credit prospects. Compared to 40% of respondents that expected improvements in credit conditions for high-yield assets to decline in the previous quarter, the study showed that the percentage increased to a total of 53%. Meanwhile, concern over banks has lessened, with only 17% of respondents saying they were worried about banks’ refinancing issues, compared with 35% in the previous survey.

Lastly, Fitch reported that the commitment to emerging markets, which has attracted the most consistently bullish sentiment over the last four quarters, has continued to gain steam.



To contact the <em>aiCIO</em> editor of this story: Paula Vasan at <a href='mailto:pvasan@assetinternational.com'>pvasan@assetinternational.com</a>; 646-308-2742

Swedish and US Pensions Partner in Agricultural Real Estate Deal

Swedish pension fund AP2 has decided to establish a joint venture with US pension fund/asset manager TIAA-CREF, with a goal of investing in agricultural real estate in the USA, Australia and Brazil.

(May 25, 2011) — The Swedish pension fund AP2 and US pension manager TIAA-CREF have partnered in an agricultural venture.

The investment comes as real estate is continuing to rebound globally while environmental, socially responsible considerations are becoming more important to investors. While AP2, which has a $35 billion portfolio, will invest $250 million, TIAA-CREF, which manages a portfolio of roughly $400 billion, will serve as majority shareholder and administrator.

“TIAA-CREF has a well-developed platform for agricultural investment where environmental considerations and social responsibility are integrated. The Second AP Fund has carried out a comprehensive sustainability analysis of TIAA-CREF’s guidelines, policies and processes and considers that they are of very high quality,” AP2 said in a release. The fund added: “The return on agricultural real estate is expected to be stable, with low covariance with the Second AP Fund’s other investments, such as equities and bonds. This will serve further diversify the Fund’s portfolio risk.”

The funds will invest primarily in grain production assets in the US, Australia, and Brazil, which ranks even above China as the premier emerging market destination for private equity investors in the next 12 months, according to a recent survey.

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AP2’s CEO Eva Halvarsson adds: “We anticipate that the newly established company’s investments will promote productivity gains and long-term, well-managed and profitable agriculture that, in a sustainable manner, will help meet the growing global demand.”



To contact the <em>aiCIO</em> editor of this story: Paula Vasan at <a href='mailto:pvasan@assetinternational.com'>pvasan@assetinternational.com</a>; 646-308-2742

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