Barclays Capital Survey Finds Commodity Investors Predict Higher Returns

Hedge funds and institutional investors predict a bigger inflow into direct commodity investments than in 2010 as the economy continues to improve, increasing demand for metals, grains, and energy.

(December 10, 2010) — Hedge funds and institutions are increasingly turning toward commodity investments and are employing active as opposed to passive strategies to do so, according to a Barclays Capital survey.

“The survey results show that institutional investors plan to continue deploying new capital into this asset class and expect healthy returns in 2011 and beyond,” Kevin Norrish, Managing Director, Barclays Capital commodities research, said in a statement. “The challenge for them is to find the right strategy to achieve those returns, and it is clear that active strategies are increasingly coming into favor.”

When those surveyed were asked how they plan to invest in commodities over the next 12 months, 43% chose active management, while only 7% expected to use index swaps.

Absolute returns are the primary motivation for commodities investors, according to 36% of respondents in the London-based bank’s survey. Meanwhile, 75% of respondents said they expect commodity inflows of $50 billion or more in 2011, which would match or exceed investment in 2010. The majority of those surveyed anticipate maintaining (22%) or increasing (69%) commodity exposure over the next three years. Copper will probably have the biggest gain next year, followed by grains and crude oil, according to the survey.

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The survey included respondents from 300 investors — 40% were hedge-fund managers. Institutional investors, such as pension funds and endowments, accounted for 40%, and the remaining being firms distributing to retail investors.

In related news, recent research released by Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) has shown that commodities are looking less risky following the credit crunch.

“Commodities may provide downside protection during periods of economic or political shock, as tangible goods with pragmatic usage become more appealing,” Brad Yim, portfolio manager, asset allocation and commodities at peer Castlestone Management, told Global Pensions. “Commodities have the rare characteristic as being an investment vehicle as well as an insurance.”

Heightened confidence in commodities by institutional investors is reflected in the Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec, Canada’s biggest pension fund manager, aiming to increase investments in energy and minerals. According to Bloomberg, Chief Executive Officer Michael Sabia said that investment in natural resources would position the fund to benefit from an unexpected commodities boom. More than half of the pension fund manager’s US-listed stock holdings are in energy and materials, Sabia told Bloomberg News in an interview in late September. “Natural resources, energy, those are areas where we think there’s an opportunity to play offense because of what the structural trends are and what our capabilities are,” he said.



To contact the <em>aiCIO</em> editor of this story: Paula Vasan at <a href='mailto:pvasan@assetinternational.com'>pvasan@assetinternational.com</a>; 646-308-2742

Norway's SWF Says Europe's Bond Market Promises a Strong Recovery

Betting on a rebound following the bailout of Greece in May, the Government Pension Fund Global has rekindled its interest in Greek, Spanish, Portuguese and Italian government debt.

(December 9, 2010) — Norway’s $510 billion sovereign wealth fund says it’s accurate in its bet that Europe will emerge from the debt crisis, with the region’s bond markets promising to deliver a “strong” recovery.

Yngve Slyngstad, head of the Norges Bank Investment Management, told Bloomberg that going forward he believes the European bond market will be strong and healthy. “This year, you’re actually getting compensated to a larger extent for the risk that is obviously there, so we’d rather say we’re more comfortable than less comfortable than a year ago,” he said.

In 2009, the Government Pension Fund Global reduced its holdings of peripheral European bonds, but has since regained interest in Greek, Spanish, Portuguese, and Italian government debt. At the end of September, according to Bloomberg, Spanish debt was the fund’s seventh-biggest bond holding.

While Europe may be on the road to recovery, Ireland’s decision last month to seek European emergency funding added to worries that Spain and Portugal may have difficulties financing their budget deficits. The International Monetary Fund head Dominique Strauss-Kahn said earlier this week during a speech in Geneva that he believes “the situation in Europe remains troubling and the future is more uncertain than ever.” He criticized the European Union’s method for handling countries facing unsustainable borrowing costs.

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In related news, a recent report by an independent council of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund has shown that the fund should take better advantage of its size. The report, compiled by the Strategy Council which is charged by the Norwegian Ministry of Finance to periodically review the fund’s investment strategy, asserted that the fund should use its massive size and long investment horizon to boost returns. “The distinguishing characteristics of the Fund include its large size, its long time horizon, the fact that it does not have specific liabilities (outside the return assumption specified by the spending rule), and its ownership and governance structure. Our proposed future changes focus on taking advantage of the long horizon,” the report stated. Strategies suggested: diversifying its equity portfolio to harness its value and liquidity risk premiums, selling insurance, and boosting its contrarian investing based on valuation ratios.



To contact the <em>aiCIO</em> editor of this story: Paula Vasan at <a href='mailto:pvasan@assetinternational.com'>pvasan@assetinternational.com</a>; 646-308-2742

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