US Recession Fears Reappear in Economic Forecasts

Following tariff announcements, forecasts are becoming increasingly bleak.



A range of banks and broker/dealers have raised the specter of a U.S. recession as the April 9 deadline approaches for a wide range of tariffs on foreign trade to take effect. Bank analysts and market strategists are increasing their assessment of the likelihood of increasing inflation and slower GDP growth.

Goldman Sachs, in a note sent to clients on Monday, increased the probability of a U.S. recession to 45%, up from 35% last week, which was, in turn, up from 20% before the latest round of tariff announcements. The previous Friday, JPMorganChase raised the probability of a recession to 60%, up from a previous estimate of 40%.

Nuveen Investment Management CIO Saira Malik wrote in a Monday report that the tariffs could add 2% to core personal consumption expenditures this year, as well as slashing economic growth by 1.7%.

“Unemployment, meanwhile, will likely rise 0.6% more than it would have without the tariffs,” Malik wrote.

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The S&P 500 whipsawed on Monday, falling more than 4% before regaining 6.45% from session lows and then falling another 2%, all within the first hour of trading, in part in reaction to a false headline that the White House was considering a 90-day deferral on tariffs on all countries except China.

President Donald Trump said on Monday morning that he would apply an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports if that country did not remove its own 34% reciprocal tariffs on U.S. imports by tomorrow. Such a levy would bring the total tariff rate on China to 104%.

The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index, which tracks the performance of U.S. listed bank stocks, fell nearly 16% since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on U.S. trading partners.

Analysts continue to anticipate further negative consequences.

“Should these measures remain in place for a significant period of time, they could potentially shave 1 – 1.5 percentage points from growth this year—meaningfully raising recession risks—while adding a broadly similar amount to core PCE inflation,” wrote Brett Ryan, a senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, in a note to clients.

Real U.S. gross domestic product grew 2.8% in 2024, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The increase in real GDP in 2024 reflected increases in consumer spending, investment, government spending, exports and imports.

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US Equities Lead 9.8% Penn SERS Return for 2024

The pension fund's asset value rose by $3.5 billion to $38.7 billion despite ending the year with a Q4 loss.




U.S. equities buoyed the Pennsylvania State Employees’ Retirement System’s 9.82% return for 2024, raising its asset value to $37.8 billion, but falling six basis points shy of its benchmark, the fund reported. The $3.5 billion increase was maintained despite the pension ending the year with a slight fourth quarter loss.

Over the past 10 and 25 years, the pension fund has registered returns of 7% and 6.18%, respectively, trailing its benchmark’s returns of 7.68% and 6.7%, respectively, over the same time periods. Since the fund’s inception in 1981, the portfolio has had an annualized return of 9.27%.

For the year, PennSERS’ U.S. equities investments returned 23.4%, slightly less than the Russell 3000 Index and the S&P 1500 Index, which gained 23.8% and 24%, respectively. Legacy private credit funds were a distant second with a 10.50% gain but missed their benchmark by nine basis points. Emerging markets equities returned 8.64%, easily beating the benchmark return of 7.43%, while private equity earned 6.28%. Private equity’s benchmark returns were not available.

The fund’s cash investments returned 5.44% for the year, ahead of the three-month Treasury bill’s 5.25% return. International developed markets equities were up 4.97%, topping its benchmark by 82 basis points, while fixed-income investments were up 2.48%, nearly doubling the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index’s 1.25% gain. The pension’s Treasury inflation protected securities investments earned 1.81% for the fund, which barely missed its benchmark by three basis points.

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Real estate was PennSERS’ worst-performing asset class for the year, losing 12.25% and falling well short of its benchmark’s 8.44% loss.

Over the long term, private equity is the pension fund’s top-performing asset class, with 10- and 25- year annualized returns of 11.83% and 10.55%, respectively, followed by U.S. equities, which earned 11.79% and 7.57%, respectively, over the same periods. They are also PennSERS’ top-performing asset classes since its inception with an 11.33% gain for private equity and an 11.06% return for U.S. equities.

As of the end of 2024, the PennSERS asset allocation was 37.35% U.S. equity, 18.11% fixed income, 17.38% private equity, 11.54% international developed markets equities, 5.74% real estate, 5.29% cash, 2.45% Treasury inflation protected securities, 1.1% emerging markets equities and 0.89% legacy private credit funds.

 

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Penn SERS Returns 12.2% in 2023

Penn SERS Earns 5.2% During 1st Half of 2024, 1.3% in Q2

Penn SERS Adjusts Asset Allocation Targets, Makes New Commitments

 

 

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