Surging Domestic Equities, Bonds Buoy Canadian Pensions’ 5% Gain in Q3

Spurred by strong performances by both equities and fixed-income investments, Canadian pension funds reported robust returns in the third quarter of 2024, as the median plan returned 4.8% during the period and 8.4% year-to-date, as of September 30, according to the Northern Trust Canada Universe.

The investment performance is a sharp turnaround from the average gain of 1.1% during the second quarter and a 3.7% loss in Q3 2023.

“During the third quarter impressive returns across both stocks and bonds were observed as the headwinds felt by monetary policy showed signs of moderating,” the Northern Trust Co. Canada stated in a release. “Equity markets marched higher on the heels of the [U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s] first interest rate cut since 2020, with Canadian equities leading the path and posting a double-digit return.”

Canadian equities, as measured by the S&P/TSX Composite Index, returned 10.5% during the third quarter, as all sectors tracked by the index registered positive returns, with real estate, financials, utilities and health care leading the way. The strong gains were buoyed by the Bank of Canada cutting interest rates twice during the quarter, as it deemed excess supply in the economy was weighing down inflation.

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Meanwhile, U.S. equities, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, returned 4.5% in Canadian dollar terms during the quarter. Ten of the 11 sectors measured by the index posted positive returns, with the energy sector the outlier: It took a loss in the period.

Emerging markets equities, as tracked by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, produced a strong 7.5% return in Canadian dollars for the quarter, with most sectors seeing gains, particularly the consumer discretionary and health care sectors. The performance was attributed to factors such as the huge stimulus plan announced by China’s central bank, as well as the Reserve Bank of India holding interest rates steady to rein in inflation. The information technology and energy sectors lagged behind the other sectors and posted losses, Northern Trust reported.

International developed markets, per the MSCI EAFE Index, rose 6.0% in Canadian dollars, led by real estate as the top performer, with the energy sector once again at the opposite end of the spectrum.

“As major central banks around the globe seek a path to neutrality, Canadian pension plans remained in solid financial form supported by healthy solvency ratios,” Northern Trust Canada President and CEO Katie Pries said in a statement. “Throughout the interest rate journey, plan sponsors exercised vigilance through the lens of balancing risks and adopting sound strategies that position plan investments for a successful and sustainable retirement future.”