Canadian Pension Dollars Bound for Delhi

Despite recent wobbles, Canada’s pensions see a golden future in India.

(September 24, 2013) — Pension funds in the Great White North are keen to send some of their assets to the east, a Canadian envoy to the region has told diplomats.

Canadian High Commissioner Stewart Beck told Indian officials that his country had some of the world’s strongest pension funds and they wanted to invest in the burgeoning economy, Indian newspaper the Economic Times reported.

“Last week, representatives of five largest Canadian pension funds were in India to talk about how to bring Canadian capital in this market,” Beck said. “Those five funds alone represent around C$700 billion of investible capital.”

India has been one of the emerging market success stories of recent years, showing a phenomenal growth rate and increasing productivity. Over the past couple of months the impetus has stumbled and consensus forecasts for future growth have been cut by observers around the world.

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That said, the Goldman Sachs forecast of a 4% Indian growth rate for 2013 outshines Canada’s own. In 2012, the nation’s GDP grew just 1.7%. India grew by 3.2% over the same period. The nation also has a growing middle class and a young workforce that will, it is predicted, spur the economy back to its former strength.

Beck cautioned, however, that Canadian investors were concerned with the “layers” of tax in India. They were not against paying tax, he clarified, but they were concerned with the very technical nature of the system.

These funds were seeking an 8% to 10% return from potential regional investments and “as long as one can have that in a relatively risk-free environment, I see a good future in India,” he said.

Areas of interest for Canada’s pensions could include food security, energy security, education, and infrastructure.

Related content: Graphic: Emerging Markets are Up (Even Though They are Down) & Will Sovereign Wealth Investments Save the Rupee?

UBS: Major Pension Asset Rebalancing Ahead

Strategists foresee US defined benefit funds offloading between $35 billion and $41 billion in stocks before the quarter's end, but purchasing an estimated $19 to $22 billion of additional fixed income products.

(September 23, 2013) — UBS investment research has forecasted a significant flow of US defined benefit (DB) pension capital from equities into bonds by the close of the third quarter (September 30).

Strategists Boris Rjavinski and Matthias Rusinski projected between $35 billion and $41 billion in public equity sales, coupled with fixed income buys of $19 billion to $22 billion. 

Strong stock market returns and lackluster performances from US investment-grade fixed income for the month and quarter-to-date drove these projections. 

Domestic equities skyrocketed with a small cap index in the lead with 10% rise this quarter so far. International equities showed strong returns as well and an emerging market equities index increased 8.48% for the quarter-to-date. 

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Bond performance, on the other hand, was relatively flat. The mainstream index cited by UBS increased less than 0.5%, UBS found. 

UBS concluded that inflows to fixed income could help US government bonds. With the Federal Reserve’s ‘tapering’ on the table, heavy buys by pension funds could slow down a considerable exit of capital from bonds and lower the Treasury yield. 

While Treasury auctions of $97 billion total this week may slow down pension funds’ immediate demand for bonds, it is projected that pensions’ longer-duration contracts would allow for a gradual shift in assets over a longer period of time. 

The research also found that corporate plans’ trend towards de-risking strategies and liability-driven investments will drive further inflows to fixed income. 

Historical data showed that 2013 is the third year in a row when third quarter pension rebalancing estimates were significant. 

Corporate pension funds’ demand for longer bonds are expected to grow and see major net new contributions in 2013. 

However, UBS advised pension funds to weigh rising bonds yields with a potential of drying up of liquidity when considering further corporate and government bonds purchases.

Related content: What Now for Fixed Income?

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