Norway’s Pension Giant Adds Chinese, Indian Firms to Exclusion List

Pension fund accuses AviChina, Bharat Electronics of selling military equipment to Myanmar’s armed forces.


Norges Bank Investment Management, which oversees Norway’s $1.34 trillion Government Pension Fund Global, is excluding investments in China’s AviChina Industry & Technology Co. Ltd. and India’s Bharat Electronics Limited, accusing the two companies of supplying military equipment to Myanmar’s armed forces, which staged a coup d’état in February 2021. 

In its decision, the manager of the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund cited an “unacceptable risk that the companies are selling weapons to a state that uses these weapons in ways that constitute serious and systematic breaches of the international rules on the conduct of hostilities.”

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According to the pension giant’s ethics council, AviChina, which sells aircraft and aviation products, delivered several light combat aircrafts to the armed forces in Myanmar in December 2021. According to the ethics council, “It has been reported that such aircrafts have previously been used in combat in Myanmar.” 

“Both before and after the coup in 2021, the armed forces have perpetrated extremely serious abuses against the civilian population, with, among other things, combat aircrafts,” the fund’s ethics council concluded in its recommendation to exclude the company. “The attacks have been numerous and, in the council’s view, constitute serious and systematic violations of international law.”

The council added that AviChina delivered aircraft to Myanmar despite the military coup and the information concerning the military’s abuses. The council also said AviChina has not responded to the council’s queries.

In its recommendation to exclude Bharat Electronics, an Indian producer of aviation and defense electronics, the ethics council said the firm delivered a remote-controlled-weapons station to Myanmar in July 2021. The council said the weapons station has been developed to remotely control weapons from inside an armored vehicle, reportedly in attacks on civilians in Myanmar.

The council said that before and after the coup, Myanmar’s armed forces have committed “extremely serious abuses against Myanmar’s civilian population.” It noted that several United Nations bodies have reported that the Myanmar armed forces, also known as the Tatmadaw, have deliberately targeted civilians.

“The attacks have been numerous and, in the council’s view, constitute serious and systematic violations of international law,” the council said. “This information has long been in the public domain, and the council takes the position that anyone selling weapons to Myanmar since 2018 should have understood that they could be used in violation of international law.”

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Limping Commodities Poised to Soar Anew, Says Goldman

China’s reopening and worldwide lack of infrastructure for raw materials should power the revival, per the firm’s Jeff Currie.

 
After a big run-up, commodity prices ebbed in 2022’s second half. But watch for a recovery this year, according to Goldman Sachs’ top researcher in the space.

Commodity prices should jump 43% in 2023, said Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at the firm. Demand from a reopened China and crimped supplies due to under-investment should combine to deliver higher prices, Currie commented in a Goldman-produced video presentation.

The S&P GSCI Index, which tracks commodities globally, clocked an 8% increase in 2022, following a 37% rise the year before. Currie noted that the index peaked in March 2022 (at the time a 68.6% year-over-year increase) and reached similar heights last June , but has been descending ever since. Thus far this year, it is down 2.2%. “Commodities were the best-performing asset class in 2022 but have recently taken a hit as recession fears loom,” he observed.

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The chief reason for the recent slump has been China’s pandemic lockdown, which shrank its demand for oil (which makes up just over half the index) and other raw materials. Now, however, things are turning around in the world’s second largest economy, Currie said.

China has reopened with a vengeance, and its orders for oil, metals and the like are mounting again. What’s more, he pointed out, the Beijing government has loosened its restrictions on real estate debt in a bid to bring back that suffering sector.

“A stronger China helps Germany and Europe through exports of capital goods and luxury items,” Currie said. “And a stronger China and a stronger Europe lead to a weaker U.S. dollar, which then acts as a tailwind for commodities.”

Other factors include the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which in early 2022 jacked up oil and gas prices—until those rises faded thanks to a warm winter in Europe, energy conservation and fresh supplies of natural gas from the U.S. and elsewhere. Crude oil prices have come down from $113 a barrel in May 2022 to $76 today.

Add to that the decline in capital spending for oil and other commodities, which serves to limit supply: From a worldwide high of more than $300 billion in 2014, the outlays have diminished by almost two-thirds, as of 2022.

Certainly, a recession later this year could pull back demand. For the long term, though, Currie is bullish on commodity prices. For one thing, what he calls the “new economy,” meaning tech-related, will require more materials ranging from lithium to copper. “The drivers are there,” he said.

 

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