A Short (Financial) Quiz of the Year

Inflows, outflows, ups, and downs—can you remember what has happened in 2013?

(November 22, 2013) — Bank of America Merrill Lynch has put together a quiz to see how well their clients (and the rest of us) have been paying attention to financial markets.

You have until December 11 to finalise your answers…

1. If the Fed’s buying of securities in 2013 were converted into dollar bills and laid end to end, how many times would it stretch around planet Earth: four, 40, 400, or 4000?

2. Which of the following has risen the most in value (in US dollar terms) this year: Netflix, Venezuelan stock prices, the Solar Energy ETF, or T-bills in Greece?

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3. Which of the following financial institutions experienced the biggest decline in their credit default swaps in 2013: Morgan Stanley, Unicredito, Banco Santander, or Nomura?

4. Inflows to global equities in 2013 as a percentage of assets under management are the best since 1999, 2004, or 2007?

5. In which of the following markets is the consensus currently forecasting more than 15% earning per share growth in 2014: Spain, Italy, Korea, India, or Brazil?

6. Is the market cap of the Eurozone equity market currently bigger or smaller than the combined market cap of the UK and Swiss stock markets?

7. Which US region is currently experiencing the strongest growth in total consumer spending, commercial real estate loans, and purchase mortgage applications: the West, the South, the Midwest, or the Northeast?

8. Which US metropolitan area has seen the smallest increase in home prices in the last 12 months: Cleveland, Detroit, Las Vegas, New York, or Washington DC?

9. Since 2000 which US metropolitan area has enjoyed the largest increase in “one-percenters” or households with incomes in the nation’s top 1%?

10. In dollar terms, which performed worse in 2013: emerging market sovereign bonds or TIPS?

11. What is the only US investment grade sector with positive year-to-date gains in 2013?

12. Name the two best performing currencies versus the US dollar during the “taper tantrum” of 2013?

13. What is currently less than 5% away from exceeding the $17.1 trillion US national debt?

14. As a share of GDP what central bank increased the size of its balance sheet the most over the past 12 months: the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, or the Swiss National Bank?

15. And finally, 1994 was a year of classic “escape velocity” for the US economy: which of the following asset classes was the best performer in the US: real estate, stocks, bonds, gold, or cash?

Keep hold of your answers and we and Bank of America Merrill Lynch will reveal if you were right on December 11. 

Norway: The Problems (and Some Solutions) for Infrastructure Investors

The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund’s investment manager has explored the issues with investing in infrastructure.

(November 22, 2013) — Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) has described the biggest challenges it faces when tackling the opportunity of infrastructure investing.

In a discussion paper, the investment manager for Norway’s Government Pension Fund-Global said the diverse nature of infrastructure assets caused problems with benchmarking performance and deciding where to put it in the portfolio.

Infrastructure investments can exhibit bond, real estate, or equity characteristics, the report said, which means the risk-return profile of the asset can differ greatly, depending on the choice of investment vehicle.

This leaves “no ‘right’ way” to benchmark such investments and poses a problem for the notoriously transparent nature of Norwegian investing.

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The paper also discusses the multiple risks investors face when investing in infrastructure, including bid risk (the chance that their contractor might not win the deal), construction risks once the project has begun, and operational and management risks once the project is completed.

Liquidity risk (given it is often difficult for investors to have an “exit plan” from infrastructure assets), political risk, and regulatory risk were also highlighted.

And even though experienced investors can lessen some of those risks with a toughly negotiated contract, NBIM warned there are some hazards that can’t be managed away.

“Anecdotal evidence suggests that there are some systematic risk factors at work. These factors may be related to issues such as global market cycles, regional and political crises, and regulatory trends. The magnitude of such risks has, however, yet to be properly researched and should be an area for future research,” the report said.

NBIM has, to date, found it too difficult to invest in infrastructure, largely due to its opaque nature. While it has progressed into real estate with great aplomb in the past two years—including acquisitions of Sheffield’s Meadowhall shopping centre and Parisian commercial real estate—it has so far steered away from infrastructure assets.

Speaking to aiCIO in 2012, Elroy Dimson, chairman of the fund’s investment strategy board, said the prices were too high for the Norwegian fund to consider, and the lack of transparency was a big concern.

“Infrastructure is attractive and inflation-linked, but the problem for the moment is that they don’t know if they are under or overpaying for the assets,” Dimson explained.

The pricing issue has been highlighted by other institutional investors too: Preqin data released this week found 49% of infrastructure investors disagreed or strongly disagreed that fund managers’ and investors’ interests are properly aligned regarding costs and fund terms.

In addition, 73% of infrastructure investors surveyed by Preqin said the level of the management fee charged by fund managers is a key area where alignment of interests can be improved.

Despite investor demands that fund managers move away from the traditional “2 and 20” private equity fee structure, a significant 61% of 2012/2013 vintage infrastructure funds and those currently being marketed charge an investment period management fee of 2% or more.

Elliot Bradbrook, manager of infrastructure data at Preqin, said investors were increasingly unwilling to buy into the this structure when gaining exposure to lower risk-return profile infrastructure assets.

“Although improvements have been made in recent years, it is vital that fund managers are able to effectively articulate the reasoning behind the fees being charged, and continue to consider the appropriate structure of the terms and conditions employed their funds in order to align interests effectively and achieve success in the competitive fundraising market,” he concluded.

Related Content: Defeating All Comers? and Real Estate Outshines Other Assets for Norway SWF 

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