Exotic Aspirations

From aiCIO magazine's February issue: How institutional investors are flourishing in foreign climates. Elizabeth Pfeuti reports.

To view this article in digital magazine format, click here.

Want to save on 30 long-haul flights, countless cups of coffee, and several bleary-eyed meetings for your staff?

Open an office in London’s Mayfair, says Alberta Investment Management Corporation’s (AIMCo) CEO and CIO Leo de Bever—who announced early this year that he’s doing just that, adding to the growing number of foreign offices operated by large institutional investors.

For de Bever, the cost of opening the two-person office will be easily outweighed by the benefits it will bring, and his views are being echoed by some of the largest investors around the world.

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At the last count, 11 pensions, sovereign wealth funds, and government-backed capital pools were operating one or more satellite offices—and more are on the way. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB), which already has offices in Hong Kong and London, has just landed in São Paulo, and before this magazine is published, there may be even more announced.

One common factor across all these institutions is the continuing trend to in-source investment management capabilities. Due to the sheer size of their portfolios, these teams need to look outside of their domestic markets to allocate capital.

Despite technology reducing the size of world markets, there is no substitute for having men—or women—on the ground, these investors say.

“You want to see what opportunities are really there, or if it is all just noise,” says de Bever. “We are also looking at other European countries from the UK. I don’t care what the market in general is doing. I care about opportunities within it—the opportunities that others are missing.”

It is the targeting of opportunities that has drawn investors to rent office space in foreign lands, but these opportunities do not just come in the form of a rising stock or high-yielding bond.

“You want to deeply understand the market, understand exactly where you are investing, and you want to be approachable, to be part of the network,” says Fer Amkreutz, chief financial and risk officer in New York City for APG, the company that runs assets for Dutch pension giant ABP.

Being part of the network is one of the key factors when opening an outpost. Of the $50 billion in direct deals made by institutional investors in 2012, some 44% were co-investments, says Patrick Thomson, global head of sovereign clients at JP Morgan Asset Management. And this number grew substantially in 2013. “Investors want to be in the centers where they are closer to their partners, deals, and capital markets—the flow, essentially—and the flow of information,” he says.

Having people on the ground full time allows not just business alliances and mutual trust to grow, which are essential to any investment venture, but a certain amount of burden-sharing can take place, too.

“Due diligence is critical in any investment decision,” says Amkreutz, who was also president of APG’s Hong Kong office for a time. “If you can share information, risks, costs, and the experience among great institutional investors, everybody benefits. If we invest in Asia, we do the same; the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan and CPPIB have offices there, so we team up on investments.”

AIMCo’s last direct venture in Europe was the purchase of UK cinema chain Vue in June. It was a co-investment with the Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System, which has had an office in London since 2009. The establishment of AIMCo’s office in the UK will help the cinema chain push into Poland and Germany, de Bever says, a move that will be much more efficient to conduct in the right time zone and with local specialists.

Having staff that speak the language and understand the culture is vital to ensure you make the right business decision, says Amkreutz. “You open a regional office to attract local people, so the majority of your investors should be local—but what is ‘local’? In our Hong Kong office, we have 10 different nationalities—from India, China, Australia, Thailand, Malaysia—are they local? Well, they understand their local markets. For the US, a local is someone who understands the local market and has lived here for a long time, but their background can vary.”

Finding these new staff members might be a chronic headache-—-but not for the ex-pat institutional investor network.

“There are a lot of informal and more formal meetings between investors that operate satellite offices,” says Amkreutz. “APG has a culture of sharing information with other pensions. We have had Korean, Malaysian, and Japanese pensions coming in to see us in New York and Hong Kong, and asking what it takes to create what we have.”

Along with sourcing new staff on the ground, there has to be a smattering of the home team present, too, investors say. AIMCo dispatched Canadians to set up the London office; the Korea Investment Corporation has sent a large number of domestic staff to its New York and London stations. Yet getting the right mix of people in the right roles is important.

There are 110 people in APG’s US outpost, 90% of whom are local. The remaining 10% is made up of Dutch ex-pats who have slotted into mainly non-investment roles. “These people manage the office and look to the alignment with the Netherlands and vice versa—those need to be people who understand the Dutch culture and the company culture,” says Amkreutz.

Managing the alignment and maintaining a common culture between the offices can be a tough job, investors say, but it is necessary if the system is to function.

“Modern technology helps if you know each other,” says de Bever, who managed the Canadian office of a large US company before AIMCo. “Sometimes you get frustrated as you think people consider you to be a smaller part of the business—but you have to be determined to make it work.”

For APG, it all starts with the board committing to support the offshoot project and ensuring stability for all involved.

“We have a lot of information sessions,” says Amkreutz. “We bring the client to visit us, so the ABP board will come to the New York and Hong Kong offices, just to understand what we do. We also do a lot of knowledge sessions with both our clients and our employees, which means focusing on what we do and how we do it, what we believe in, and what we think should change.”

But Where Are the Americans?

Therein lies the rub for some of the largest institutional investors, whose international offices are conspicuous by their absence. None of the large US public pension plans—with assets that dwarf their Canadian counterparts’—have been able to set up investment posts outside their home turf, and this has caused some consternation.

“We and the California Public Employees’ Retirement System have talked about trying to do this a number of times, but there’s just no way, given the governance structure,” says Chris Ailman, CIO of the California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS).

Together, the funds’ assets total almost $450 billion, which would place them in the top 50 largest investment firms list—if they were permitted to operate as such.

“Virtually all of the large public funds in the US were set up in the 1970s as divisions of governmental agencies,” says Ailman. “Smart business decisions such as setting up global offices are common sense for a money manager, but nearly impossible for a governmental agency.”

California has even closed its tourist agencies that were scattered around the world.

“If you look at us through the lens of a governmental entity and compare us with the department of licensing, our structure and operation look expensive. That’s because we are not a state entity in that way—we’re a money manager, a global money manager who has to compete with global entities,” says Ailman. “If you look at us through the lens of a Wall Street money management firm, you would be shocked the other way at how inexpensive and frugal we are.”

Considering these public funds as part of the local government fabric cuts them off from the co-investments and direct deals their relatively smaller peers are pushing further into.

Even without the additional complication that California and other westerly and southern states are geographically distant from the main financial centers, their set-ups are not adequate to facilitate such deals. Flying to London—in the rear section of the plane—for a week and expecting to pull off a complex investment deal is -unrealistic—and risky.

“Those satellite offices are directly investing in real estate and infrastructure, which by their nature are 10- to 15-year deals,” says Ailman. “For long-term investments, you can’t make decisions and evaluate the deal in one week. You need to know and understand your business partner as well as the investment itself.”

Thomson at JP Morgan, who spent five years in Singapore with the firm, understands US public funds’ frustrations—but also the issues faced by their boards.

“You have to look to your stakeholders,” he says. “What is the advantage to them of you setting up a foreign investment office? Is there a net benefit to your members? If you are an intergenerational fund, you can make the argument that it makes sense as you are working towards the wealth of the country.”

Singapore’s GIC and some Middle Eastern funds have proven the value of outposts, having seen financial benefit across their funds, says Thomson. However, even this might be a hard sell to US taxpayers who are not au fait with the financial world.

But it is not just the potential missed returns that concern Ailman. He has graver worries about not having staff on the ground.

“Everyone looks at these offices in terms of opportunity,” he says, “but people need to look at them in terms of risk management. It’s a balance of risk and return. Some of my best money spent was sending people to do due diligence and they’ve come back saying we shouldn’t do the deal. Although it’s difficult to measure, the deals those offices pass up are much more advantageous than us parachuting in for a week, having a couple of meetings, dealing with the jetlag and the travel.”

Amkreutz at APG understands this problem, too.

“If you want to buy a house in Spain and you live in London, you can do it via a brochure—it’s not that difficult—but I think you would want to see it. If you want to buy a lot of houses, you start thinking, ‘Well, why wouldn’t I open an office there?’”

If you are prevented from doing so, you are unlikely to discover the risks that may be lurking under the surface.

And the Australians?

Even farther away than Sacramento from the world’s financial centers is Australia, which is home to the ever-growing superannuation system. An uptick in contribution levels is set to boost a capital pool that is already larger than the market capitalization of the country’s stock market—but to date only one fund has ventured to open an office outside its national borders.

The A$70 billion AustralianSuper has a small operation in Beijing. Speaking to a reporter last year, Stephen Joske, senior manager in Asia for the fund, said: “Being on the ground in Beijing gives us really important insights into the future of the Chinese economy. On the one hand, we can see what’s actually happening, whereas if you’re farther away from it, often it can be hard to distinguish government intentions from actual reality.”

So far, it is the only super fund to have taken the plunge, but where US public funds complain of arcane and limiting governance structures, Damian Lillicrap, head of investment strategy at QSuper, thinks in Australia it is only a question of time.

“The lack of outposts is largely a reflection on the current state of evolution of the structure of Australian funds,” he says. “While funds are relatively large, in-house teams haven’t been that common or big. QSuper, for example, has only had an in-house investment team for the last four years. So our focus has been on less esoteric things than global outposts.”

Lillicrap says that looking at the evolution of the global economy—with emerging markets making up an ever greater slice of the pie and investment opportunity set—it seems a good possibility that such outposts will emerge as part of many investment processes.

“In the meantime, we have the luxury of watching and assessing the pros and cons of different structures being implemented around the globe,” he says, “from small, tight teams focused on strategy to large, global teams deeply involved in the deal process for individual assets.”

But Outposts Don’t Equal Success…

CalSTRS’ Ailman is also watching the outposts with interest, and is inclined to believe that the story is not yet complete.

“We need to see these outposts go ‘round trip’. Anecdotally, there is success, but there are also challenges with doing direct deals,” he says. “Most of the challenges deal with governance: managing and keeping and retaining staff.”

At AIMCo, one of de Bever’s concerns for outpost staff is that they understand their limits. “If you have people on the ground, you don’t want them to take everything just to justify their presence,” he says. “Considering the wear and tear on our people that we are avoiding—and all that comes with it—I think our London office is necessary, although it won’t be getting much bigger.”

There will be more of these offices, de Bever thinks, but investors need to consider the incremental costs and determine if they are really necessary.

Thomson thinks that the size, scale, and increasing global complexity of investors will dictate their expansion. “The average team for a sovereign wealth fund is 90 investment professionals, and 50% of them have been created since 2005,” he says. “They are expanding and are looking much more actively across different asset classes. It is evidence of their increased sophistication as investors.”

With this in mind, improving pension fund governance structure should see the largest investors haul their might around the world—and even the US public funds may get a look in.

“I think it will actually change, and it will be massive,” says Ailman. “Like adopting a new technology, it will change everything, and people will ask why we didn’t always do it that way. But I don’t know what the catalyst to change will be.” 

What to Do When You’re Fully Funded

From aiCIO magazine's February issue: Charlie Thomas on how to stay on top after hitting that 100% funded level.

To view this article in digital magazine format, click here.

It came as a welcome surprise to the president of Air Canada that his company’s pension plan had hit full funding at the end of December. “[I] always expected to settle the problem,” said Calin Rovinescu at a press conference in January. “But frankly, I would have thought it would take another year or two to get there.”

The Air Canada pension plan had been $4.4 billion in the red not too long before, but thanks to a rise in interest rates, a 14% investment return, and reductions in early retirement provisions, that deficit was brought down to zero in January.

Rovinescu is not alone in finding himself in a more comfortable accounting position. Many pension funds are creeping towards that golden fully funded status. Data from Towers Watson released last month showed the aggregate pension funded status of 1,000 defined benefit providing employers in the US leapt from 77% at the end of 2012 to 93% a year later.

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To put this in perspective, since 2000, the Fortune 1,000’s aggregate funding position has drifted from a high of 124% to a low of 77%. Today’s 93% is the highest funding level achieved since 2006, when pension funds recorded an aggregate of 99%.

Mercer’s data, meanwhile, based on S&P 1500 company pension funds, showed a 21% improvement in funding status over the past 12 months, with the aggregate funding status reaching 95%. That equates to more than 80% of US pension underfunding being eliminated since the beginning of 2013.

If the picture is a little less rosy on the other side of the Atlantic, it is just due to accounting differences.

The corporate pension lifeboat, the Pension Protection Fund, said UK pension funding on an insurer-buyout basis had improved slightly between March 2012 and March 2013: The funding ratio rose from 83% to 84%. However, corporate bond movements across the year and various stock market rallies finally permitted UK CIOs some respite: By November 2013, funding had rocketed to 93%.

After one of the worst periods in financial history, reaching fully funded status is no longer a pipe dream. Now, CIOs have to consider what to do when they get there— and how to avoid the mistakes from the past to ensure they stay.

 

What Happens Next?

How CIOs react to the news that they’ve reached fully funded status (after popping the champagne corks) largely depends on their endgame. Is achieving buyout the ultimate goal? Or is keeping the fund self-sufficient the aim?

Hitting that 100% funded level (or 105% if you’re in the Netherlands) is not a cliff event. The game doesn’t stop once you get there.

There are three top things that should be on every CIO’s to-do list as they approach becoming fully funded. Firstly, keep de-risking, but don’t de-risk entirely. Secondly, consider the cash-flow situation and adjust accordingly—not forgetting about the potential for further government or regulatory increases. And thirdly, don’t become complacent.

Consultants agree that, for now, most plans will continue with their de-risking strategies. Ari Jacobs, senior partner at Aon Hewitt, says most US plans now have glide paths that invest using strategic decisions to increase the amount of fixed income or liability hedging assets.

“The thing to consider is how and when you make those decisions,” he says. “Do you do them slowly, over time? Or try and do it all in one shot? Do you worry about gaining access to markets?”

Many pension funds choose to increase their hedging allocation as they become better funded. So does that mean you should be fully hedged at the point of being fully funded? And if so, what assets should you buy towards the end of the glide path?

“When we look at hedging strategies, you increase your hedge ratio as you improve, but you need to become more sophisticated,” says Jacobs. “When you have a low hedge ratio, you’re looking at duration matching; as you increase your hedge ratio, you want to focus more on credit.”

As the ratio gets higher, CIOs should ensure the plan is taking fewer risks, Jacobs continues. “As you go further into the 60%-, 70%-hedged range, you’re moving to a pure mark-to-market basis. You need to view risks differently as the hedge ratio changes your exposure to risks. The exposure to duration risk is high when you’re at 40% hedged, and your equity exposure might well be high.”

De-risking also means looking at pension-risk transfers. Pensioner buy-ins—where an insurer offers a policy to take on some of the pension’s liabilities while the trustees and CIO continue to manage the fund—have grown in popularity, particularly in the UK. They are seen as a good way to remove some of the liabilities once a better funding ratio has been achieved.

The move is also often seen as a step along the path of achieving a full buyout, although not all funds will achieve that aim. While the capacity of insurers to provide buyouts is not a concern yet, it could well be in the future.

But if you’re not in a position to buy out or execute another form of pension-risk transfer, what are your options?

Peter Martin, head of manager research at JLT Employee Benefits in the UK, says there is a point where pension funds undergo an evolution, from balance sheet management to managing cash flows. “What we think of as liability-driven investment [LDI] is a transition phase,” he says. “The money in LDI at the moment will ultimately need to evolve into this steadier, self-sufficient, cash-flow matching-type policy. Swaps will be a part of that, but what they will do will change.”

This “cash-flow choreography,” as Martin has christened it, was highlighted by a number of consultants. Ultimately, it boils down to investing money “so it naturally matures at the point you need it,” says Martin. “It’s not an exact science, but you can think about it in broad terms: I need cash month in, month out, to pay the pensioners.”

Jacobs prefers to call it liquidity management. “Most plans pay out 7% to 10% of their assets in any given year, so the cash needs for the plan are real, but they’re not enormous,” he says. “You need to be nimble to create cash or buy into the fixed income markets when you need it.”

This step also requires that you consider any future contributions coming into the fund. How much can the plan sponsor put in over the next decade? Will you need to come back and adjust that?

As an example, in the US, plans have had to deal with a change in Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation fees. New legislation will see the variable premium—levied on the underfunding level of the plan—triple by 2016. That could encourage the plan sponsor to put more money into the plan ahead of that date, Jacobs says.

 

Don’t Get Cocky

The third step is not to become complacent. The risks, as previously noted, change as you approach self-sufficiency, meaning CIOs can’t switch off when they reach the Holy Grail of being fully funded.

“It’s a bit like that fairground game where you push one head down and then another one pops up,” says John Towner, director at investment consultants Redington.

“In your typical risk analysis, you have some large, dominant risks such as interest rate and inflation. If they’re taken out, as they probably would be when you reach a higher funding level, the other funding risks become more pronounced.”

Basis risk—the risk that offsetting investments in a hedging strategy will not experience price changes in entirely opposite directions from each other—is one Towner often looks for with his clients. It could arise because of the difference between the asset whose price is to be hedged and the asset underlying the derivative, or because of a mismatch between the expiration date of the futures and the actual selling date of the asset.

Aon Hewitt’s Jacobs also warns not to let accounting dictate your decisions, “I know there’s some real attachment to the earnings that come from the accounting rules in the US, but they shouldn’t drive your decisions, as they’re probably not economically based,” he says. “And you shouldn’t assume that being fully funded means it’s time to settle your liabilities. Being fully funded doesn’t necessarily mean you can get out of the plan without any more dollars being thrown at it.” 

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