Has the Tide Turned for Macro Hedge Funds?

Some macro strategies are powering ahead, but is it too soon to claim the strategy’s crisis is over?

(March 10, 2014) — Large macro hedge funds posted positive returns in February to offset the losses made in January and pulling up longer track records, research has shown.

In the second month of the year, hedge funds operating a macro strategy made 0.79%, according to data monitor Evestment, which pulled year to date returns to 0.74%.

The main protagonists in this positive performance were large funds, Evestment said, as some of the smaller players continued their recent losing streak.

“Average returns from macro strategies with greater than $1 billion in assets under management was 3.2% in February,” a report from the data firm said, “actually near the top of the industry.”

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European asset manager Lxyor found similar statistics from its alternatives index. The group said the strategy had benefitted from a rebound in risky assets.

Those in positive territory profited from equity performance—particularly in Europe—and long positions on precious metals.

Commodity relative value trades and Japanese securities hit the less-well performing funds.

Managed futures funds made some headway after losing 0.94% last year, according to Evestment’s figures. A strong upwards movement in commodities prices saw this group make 2.05% in February dragging its two-month figure to 1.18%.

More generally, hedge funds had their best month in more than two years, reporting returns not seen since January 2012, Evestment said.

Activist strategies performed the best in February, with a 3.20% return, however, all major approaches trailed the S&P 500 Total Return index. This mainstream index rose 4.57% across the shortest month of the year.

Related content: Hedge Fund Fail-Mates & Macro Hedge Funds Suffer Despite Industry Boom

Japan Pension to Aim for 1.7% Annual Return

The Government Pension Investment Fund’s target is far lower than CalPERS, the CPPIB, and Norway.

(March 10, 2014) — The world’s largest pension fund has been advised to target annual returns of just 1.7%.

This real return is markedly lower than that of its international peers. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global each require a 4% annualised real rate, according to data on the funds’ websites. The Californian Public Employees’ Retirement System targets a 4.75% in real terms.

The total return estimate for the Government Pension Investment Fund’s (GPIF) when including inflation (1.2%) and worker compensation increases (1.3%) is 4.2%.

GPIF’s target was recommended by a Japanese government advisory panel. It said the ¥128.6 trillion ($1.25 trillion) fund should adopt a 4.2% return target as it was suitable under all eight economic scenarios for the country.

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However, the return figure may need to be increased if a health ministry review of pension finances finds that it’s not enough, Kazuo Ue da, a panel member, told Bloomberg.

The panel also said the GPIF no longer needs to focus on domestic bonds given quickening inflation.

Japanese bonds accounted for 55% of GPIF’s portfolio at the end of December, the smallest share since the fund was established in its current form in April 2006. GPIF held 17% of its assets in local shares last quarter, another 15% in foreign equities, and 11% in overseas bonds, according to a statement on its website.

The 4.2% target amounts to a 0.1 percentage point increase on its current goal, and comes at a time when GPIF is facing pressure to take more risk to cover retirement pay-outs for the world’s oldest population.

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