(June
16, 2014) – The logical way to a design defined contribution (DC) pension is to do it backwards, a
World Bank researcher has concluded—but she has found, most are not.
The
widespread tendency to start with accumulation-phase asset allocation rather
than retirement outcome has instilled dangerous short-termism into DC
portfolios, according to Senior Financial Sector Specialist Fiona Stewart.
In
her working paper for the World Bank, published last month, Stewart argued that
reversing this counter-productive outlook is all a matter of incentives.
As it
stands now, she wrote, in most countries private-sector providers are
responsible for DC plan design and have one motivation: generating fees. This
leads to herding, as providers aim to minimize tracking error against their
competitors.
For
commercial DC providers, “the potential downside of taking risks outweighs the
upside. Herding could also lead to everyone taking too much risk for a
long-term perspective,” Stewart continued, citing the high level of equities
present in many US target-date funds at the time of retirement. “A manager’s
set of incentives does not include being too much above the market in one year
and below the other.”
Here’s
where regulators could step in—and, in a few countries, already have. According
to Stewart, the best way to realign providers’ incentives with member outcomes
would be mandated benchmarking. Regulators could set acceptable ranges of
tracking error relative to reference portfolios that optimize the likelihood of
replacing a certain portion of income throughout retirement. Rather than
incentivizing providers to perform in-line with markets from year to year, they would be measured for long-term delivery of retirement security.
Stewart
advocated for independent bodies of experts to establish these benchmark portfolios
rather than governments, which would likely set “conservative and easy to
achieve” targets.
Reference
portfolios have already been implemented by a handful of institutions,
including the UK’s National
Employment Savings Trust and the New
Zealand Superannuation Fund. Both measure the performance of actual
portfolios against passive, low-cost models with long-dated targets.
However,
Stewart did note that the strategy presented several practical challenges,
including its reliance on sound risk/return assumptions and governance
structures.
“This
paper does not pretend to have all the implementation answers,” the author acknowledged,
“but the adoption of the philosophy can go a long way to helping ensure that
the suite of regulatory measures is better designed towards achieving secure,
adequate income in retirement, which is the ultimate goal of all our pension
systems.”
Read
Fiona Stewart’s full World Bank working paper—“Proving Incentives for Long-Term
Investment by Pension Funds: The Use of Outcome-Based Benchmarks”—here.
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Source: World Bank policy research working paper no. 6885 (2014)