A New Tech Bubble Is Poised to Pop, Warns Bernstein

Profitless companies with soaring stocks, like Pinterest and Snap, are flirting with trouble, the firm’s analysts say.

Seems like déjà vu all over again, to quote that great sage, Yogi Berra. Alliance Bernstein is warning that a batch of unprofitable stock-market superstars from the tech world is in danger of going south.

If so, it could be painfully reminiscent of the 2000-02 tech wreck, when hot internet companies flamed out spectacularly. Primo example: profitless Pets.com, which had a big ad buy during the Super Bowl back then and was defunct 11 months later.

While the situation now is hardly as bad as two decades ago, current high-fliers that have been in the red for three years are likely to take a dive in coming months, according to Bernstein tech analyst Toni Sacconaghi and his team.

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On his watch list are such earnings-free companies as online pinboard purveyor Pinterest, social media concern Snap, data-analysis software maker Palantir Technologies, and cybersecurity vendor CrowdStrike Holdings.

Today, more than a third of all unprofitable tech stocks trade at greater than 15 times revenues, Sacconaghi wrote in a client note. Tech names with such high multiple and no earnings, he added, historically have shown returns that are “very poor.”   

Right now, this bunch is doing extremely well. And the report found that the group tends to romp as long as growth stocks are climbing, which is still the case now (albeit with a little less exuberance lately). Pinterest, for instance, has gained 380% over the past 12 months. The stock’s price/sales ratio is a lofty 31.1, by Bernstein’s count, as of April 8.

Alas, things tend to go badly after the market turns against growth. Bernstein examined unprofitable tech stocks over the past 50 years that sported price/sales ratios of more than 15. Conclusion: They on average lost 18% over three years and 28% over five years.

Bernstein indicated that the worst results tend to visit the most richly valued tech stocks, as determined by price to sales.

If Sacconaghi is right, then the momentum that has propelled tech stocks for a while now could be flagging. The biggest tech names, such as Apple and Amazon, have prodigious profits, of course.

Although the same can’t be said for the likes of Pinterest and its ilk, at least their revenues are mounting. In last year’s final quarter, revenue soared 76% for Pinterest. And it’s true that the 21st century’s tech titans had their own rough starts. Amazon was in the red for years back in the 1990s.

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Norway Pension Giant Asked to Shed 25% to 30% of Companies from Index

Finance Ministry calls for the Government Pension Fund Global to drop up to 2,200 equity investments.

Norway’s Ministry of Finance said the country’s $1.32 trillion sovereign wealth fund benchmark index covers too many small companies and is calling for it to reduce the number of firms it owns stakes in by about 25% to 30%.

The number of companies in the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG)’s benchmark index for equities has grown steadily over time, particularly since 2007, when small companies were first included in the pension fund and the number of companies soared to approximately 7,000 from just over 2,400. Since then, the number of companies in the fund’s benchmark index for shares has increased to about 8,800 as of the end of last year.

The Ministry of Finance, which is responsible for managing the fund and determining its investment strategy, has been assessing whether the number of companies in the benchmark index is appropriate or needs to be reduced. In its assessment, the ministry used analyses and assessments from Norges Bank, the GPFG’s Council on Ethics, and index provider MSCI.

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In a report to Norway’s Storting, the country’s highest legislative body, the Ministry of Finance said that although the market value of the fund has increased significantly since 2007, the growth has come as marketability in many stock markets has fallen, making it more difficult to trade large amounts at low costs.

“The shares in the smallest companies are also often the least tradable and can therefore be particularly expensive to trade in,” said the report. “At the same time, the smallest companies make up a very small part of the total market value of the index.”

The Ministry added that because 25% of the companies in the benchmark index make up only 2% of the total market value of the index, the diversification gains from including the smallest companies are limited.

“In addition, a large number of companies in the index can contribute to increasing both the complexity of management and the management and transaction costs,” according to the report.

After analyzing returns and risk for equity indexes with fewer companies and lower market coverage than the fund’s current benchmark index for equities, Norges Bank and MSCI found that “market coverage can be reduced somewhat without entailing significant changes in the return and risk characteristics.”

The report also said the transaction costs of trading shares in small companies are typically higher than those for similar trades in large companies and that analyses from MSCI “show that a reduction in the number of companies, in combination with other adjustments to the index rules, can reduce current transaction costs.”

The Council on Ethics also noted that fewer companies will provide a better overview of the portfolio, since there is very little information available for “very many companies” in the fund.

The proposal that the number of companies in the benchmark index for shares in the GPFG be reduced by up to 30% would give the pension giant market coverage of 96% of the underlying index from FTSE Russell, or about 6,600 companies, compared with 98% of the index and about 8,800 companies today.

The Ministry added that the companies that are removed from the index make little contribution to risk diversification because they have a very low market value relative to other companies in the index.

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