‘Forever’ Investor Buffett Ditches Stocks He Just Bought

Oracle’s Berkshire sells Barrick Gold and Pfizer, and expands Chevron stake despite his green leanings.

Warren Buffett


Warren Buffett’s storied answer to how long he’d hold a stock was “forever.” While that may be true for certain old favorites like Coca-Cola (he’s said to consume five cans of the soda daily), his Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate regularly shuffles its assets.

That remixing tendency is on display in the company’s recent regulatory filing. Berkshire unloaded drug maker Pfizer, miner Barrick Gold, and banking giant JPMorgan Chase. And some of the firm’s ejections are relatively recent additions to the Berkshire lineup.

What’s not clear is why Berkshire has made the recent moves it did. Maybe the upcoming company earnings release and Buffett’s annual shareholder letter on Feb. 28 will bring some clarity.

Buffett watchers have wondered for a while whether such moves are after-the-fact corrections he’s making for earlier purchases by the two investment managers he has deputized to run the portfolio, Ted Weschler and Todd Combs.

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Of course, the shuffling may be strategic course adjustments as Berkshire seeks to find a home for its cash hoard, totaling $145.7 billion as of Sept. 30.

But the reallocations are odd in that some apply to those recent buys. Pfizer and Barrick, for instance, were bought just last year.

The pharma outfit is celebrated as the first to win Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval for a COVID-19 vaccine. Pfizer stock has a lot of the attributes Buffett looks for, such as an affordable multiple, with a 20 price/earnings (P/E) ratio and a tidy dividend yield of 4.5%.

Compounding the mystery is that Berkshire increased its holdings in three other drug companies: Bristol Myers Squibb, Merck, and AbbVie. Bristol is a latecomer to vaccine development, Merck has given up on its effort, and AbbVie is restricting itself largely to antibody treatments for already infected patients.

Berkshire’s purchase of Barrick shares last year was a real surprise, as Buffett has long been dismissive of gold. Barrick has the virtue of also selling copper, which mostly is an industrial metal. Bullion prices are ahead over the past 12 months, although the yellow metal has slumped since August, and Barrick’s stock price is flat for the period.

Certainly, Buffett has a longstanding affinity for financial stocks. Hence, the exiting of JPM along with PNC Financial appear odd. Berkshire also has trimmed its positions in Wells Fargo and US Bancorp. Last year, Buffett ditched Goldman Sachs.

That said, he hasn’t touched his huge position in Bank of America, Berkshire’s second largest holding, with about a 12% stake in the bank—and it’s a position he has kept for many years. The lowered bank exposure overall may show Buffett’s doubts about continued low interest rates and loan losses due to the virus, according to Doug Kass, president of Seabreeze Capital Investment.

Here’s another puzzler: Berkshire expanded its ownership of Chevron shares. That’s despite its big clean-energy effort; Buffett’s firm has an entire division devoted to solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal power.

Buffett, certainly, has shown through the years that his investing credo must adjust with the times. After long avoiding tech stocks, saying he didn’t understand them, the Oracle of Omaha reversed course. In 2016 and bought $1 billion worth of Apple. Since then, its share price has increased more than fivefold. The iPhone maker remains Berkshire’s largest position, although the company just offloaded 6% of the stock.

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Private Equity Firms Expect Wave of M&As in Second Half of 2021

The increased pace of COVID-19 vaccinations and the specter of a capital gains hike are expected to spur activity.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Deal volumes and valuations are expected to pick up.
  • Firms expect more sellers will be open to making deals in the third and fourth quarters.
  • Interest in international deals continues to decline.

Despite ongoing challenges from the economic turmoil of COVID-19, private equity (PE) firms expect to see a wave of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity during the second half of the year, spurred by a waning pandemic and the specter of higher capital gains taxes, according to a survey from Citizens Financial Group.  

The survey polled 470 US-based middle-market firms with $50 million to $1 billion in revenue that are currently engaged in, or are open to M&A activity, as well as 230 private equity firms with clients in the same revenue range. Core business sectors included health care, technology, industrial, consumer services, and business-to-business (B2B) services, among other industries.

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“Many business leaders expect the continued rollout of vaccines and the prospect of increased taxes to spur a robust year in terms of deal flow, especially in the second half,” Ralph Della Ratta, chairman of Citizens M&A Advisory, said in a statement.

According to the survey, companies will rely on mergers and acquisitions for growth in 2021 and more sellers will be open to making deals during the third and fourth quarters.

While economic outlook is usually the main factor in a company considering an M&A transaction, the survey found that COVID-19 and the Biden administration’s tax policies are top drivers for firms this year, with increased expectations for a surge in M&A if the capital gains tax rate is hiked. Optimistic expectations for corporate valuations and deal flow this year are also contributing to a rosy M&A outlook.

Expectations for robust M&A activity come despite firms having a less positive outlook for the US economy for the year. Only 47% of firms polled said they have a positive outlook for the economy in 2021, compared with 61% of firms who said the same thing in 2020. The companies had a more positive outlook for their own businesses in 2021 with 55% saying they were optimistic about their outlook this year, although that was down from 65% last year.

“2020 left a backlog of pent-up demand for M&As,” said Jim Childs, CEO of Citizens M&A Advisory. “With strong valuations, we think a lot of PE firms and liquidity-seeking owners will be eager to get to the market.”

The survey also found that interest among firms to conduct international deals continues to wane as only 47% of buyers and 33% of sellers said they were interested in global M&A deals, down from 51% and 41%, respectively, last year, and 56% and 49%, respectively, in 2019. Citizens Financial said that because international deals are inherently more complicated, the continued decline in sellers’ interest is a sign they are looking for execution certainty.

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