$1.3 Billion Needed for Chicago Pension Funds, Debt Payments, KBRA Says

The bond rating agency suggests positivity, despite rocky road ahead.

Chicago will have to gather $1.3 billion in new revenue and spending reductions by 2023 to meet scheduled contributions to four pension funds and make rising debt payments, according to a report published TK from Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA).

The bond rating agency reported that, in addition to the $1.3 billion, Chicago Public Schools (CPS) and other local taxing bodies may need an additional $339 million to meet those costs.

KBRA also reported that new taxes and spending reductions for the city, CPS, Cook County, and additional governments could end up becoming $1.66 billion by the same year —a move that the KBRA feels “will be politically painful, but affordable.”

Depending on the economy and if CPS receives the extra money it needs from state government and the city’s overall finances, this outcome could change for the better.

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According to the Chicago Tribune, the city has already approved $1.4 billion in new annual revenue since Mayor Rahm Emanuel took office in 2011. The $823 million bulk of this revenue is from higher property taxes, a new water service tax, and an increased 911 fee—all of which are being used to increase pension contributions. A majority of the rest of the money is from increased water service fees dedicated to upgrading the city’s water system. In order to cover education costs, construction, and pension contributions, CPS has increased property taxes by more than $477 million since 2011.

Despite the gloomy outlook, KBRA is optimistic, giving Chicago a higher bond rating than other agencies—such as Moody’s, which warned of another debt downgrade earlier this month. The agency also feels that the state will eventually recover, although it will continue to be a bumpy ride.

“While tax burdens on households and businesses in Chicago may grow, actual property tax rate increases will likely be much less than many analysts project and, in KBRA’s opinion, will not result in total tax burdens that are so high as to impact the city’s position as the Midwest regional capital of commerce, culture, business, and education,” the KRBA said in a statement. “The challenges and risks related to the city’s severely underfunded pension plans are reasons KBRA rates Chicago BBB+ instead of a higher rating commensurate with the depth and diversity of its underlying economic base, effective management, improved financial controls, and ample reserves—conditions not present in situations like Detroit, Puerto Rico, and Stockton.”

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GSAM’s Moran: Surging PBGC Fees Incentivize Pension De-Risking

Companies are increasingly considering annuitization and lump sums due to sharply rising premiums.

Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. (PBGC) fees have risen so sharply, and so quickly, that they have not only become a major factor in how companies fund their pensions, but have even incentivized de-risking strategies, says Mike Moran, managing director for Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM).

The two main fees pension funds must pay to the PBGC are a variable-rate fee that is tied to its liabilities, and a flat-rate fee for each of a plan’s participants. The flat-rate fee has nearly doubled for single-employer plans to $69 from $35 in 2012, and has more than tripled for multiemployer plans to $28 from $9 in 2012. Meanwhile, the variable rate has also more than tripled from 0.9% in 2013 to 3.4% today, and will surpass 4% by the end of the decade, says Moran.

Prior to this recent surge in prices, the prevailing attitude among pension funds was to wait for interest rates to rise to help alleviate their funding deficit, says Moran. But because interest rates haven’t budged, and the PBGC fees continue to rise, it has become too expensive for many pension administrators to do nothing.

“The change that has really happened over the last year or two, in particular over the past six months, is plans are saying maybe rates will rise, maybe they’re not going to rise,” said Moran in an interview with CIO. “But while we’re waiting for that to happen, which we can’t control, what can we control?”

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One of the things pensions can control, says Moran, is increasing their funding level to reduce their liabilities, and thus lowering their PBGC variable-rate premiums, which has become a growing trend for pension fund providers. According to GSAM’s Corporate Defined Benefit Mid-Year-Update, 2016 was the strongest year for contributions to US corporate defined benefit plans since 2013. The report also said it expects that trend to continue, with a 10% increase in total contributions in 2017.

But while the rising variable rate has had the effect of spurring pensions to boost their funding status, the flat-rate fee could come back to bite the PBGC, says Moran. Because the flat-rate premium is based on the number of participants in a plan, the more participants a fund has, the higher the premium is. Therefore, the only proactive measure a company can make to lower the cost of the flat-rate fee is to reduce the number of participants in its pension plan.

“That’s part of why you see a lot of this risk transfer activity around annuitization and lump sums,” said Moran. Once a company moves its participants to an annuity, or if they take a lump sum, their plans are no longer subject to PBGC fees.

Moran said that a lot of companies that can afford to do so are going to insurance companies to buy annuities, or offering lump sums to their participants so that they are no longer beholden to the PBGC.  The result of this is that with the more financially sound companies leaving the realm of the PBGC, the organization’s fee revenue becomes increasingly reliant on less financially sound companies.

“What you end up with potentially over time is the weaker companies that can’t do that are still in the system,” said Moran. “And in some respects, that can raise the risk of the PBGC.”  

Moran also says that many companies are now viewing risk transfer transactions, such as moving participants into an annuity, as a viable tool to counter the high fees.

“This is a topic that comes up in almost every client meeting,” he says. “Many are evaluating the cost; some may decide it’s not for them, but most plan sponsors we’ve talked to have kicked the tires on it.”

 

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