Manager Survey Shows Eroded Investor Confidence

A global survey of 207 fund managers reveals that investors have become less bullish about the global economy but have not given up on riskier assets.

(June 16, 2010) — According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s June Survey of Fund Managers, global fund managers have lost significant confidence in the prospects for economic growth and in the ability of corporations to improve profits. Yet, investors have not given up on riskier assets, finding equities as cheap as they have been since March 2009, with emerging market stocks seen as the most favored sector.

“Investors are starting to see the basis for Europe’s rehabilitation on the back of a more constructive outlook for the euro,” said Gary Baker, head of European Equities strategy at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, in a statement. “Risk appetite has stabilized…You haven’t really seen any panic from investors,” he said.

The survey revealed only 24% of respondents believe the world economy would strengthen in the next year, down from 42% in May and 61% in April. Global investors have expressed similar concerns over corporate profits. A total of 28% of the study’s respondents believed profits would improve in the coming 12 months, compared with 47% in May and 67% two months ago. In addition, 42% of the respondents in the June study described liquidity as poor, up 20 percentage points from May.

The June survey also showed global investors are feeling more hopeful about the outlook for Europe’s stocks and for the euro, with 19% of global investors predicting the euro will appreciate over the coming year, up from 7% in May.

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“Global growth expectations have ‘double-dipped’ and positioning is more defensive but investors show little sign of panic,” said Michael Hartnett, chief Global Equities strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, in a news release.

Meanwhile, the survey showed investors had sold energy stocks in the face of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, with only 7% retaining an overweight position in the sector in June, down 30 percentage points from May. According to the news release, the drop represented the biggest monthly swing in energy the survey has recorded.

A total of 207 fund managers, managing a total of $606 billion in capital, participated in the global survey from June 4 to June 10, a period when global equities fell by 7.5%. The survey was conducted by BofA Merrill Lynch Research with the help of market research company TNS.



To contact the <em>aiCIO</em> editor of this story: Paula Vasan at <a href='mailto:pvasan@assetinternational.com'>pvasan@assetinternational.com</a>; 646-308-2742

Mercer Settles Alaska Pension Suit for $500 Million

The Alaska Retirement Management Board blamed Mercer for unfunded liabilities.

(June 15, 2010) — Marsh & McLennan Cos.’ Mercer consulting unit agreed to settle a $2.8 billion lawsuit brought by the Alaska Retirement Management Board for $500 million.

The suit blames the firm for billions of dollars in unfunded liabilities from 1992 to 2004, which Mercer denies. Insurance will cover $100 million of the settlement, the company said.

“This is a significant settlement that will benefit the state and our citizens,” Alaska’s Attorney General Daniel Sullivan said in the statement, according to Bloomberg. “We have been informed that by a large margin it is the largest such settlement in history for this kind of claim. This is, as far as we know, by far the largest actuarial settlement that has occurred in the country,” he added.

The civil suit was scheduled to go before a jury trial next month, with the state and the Alaska Retirement Management Board seeking at least $2.8 billion and payment due in 60 days.

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According to a statement, Mercer concluded that a settlement was in the best interests of the company and its stakeholders for several reasons, including: the uncertainty of the outcome of a jury trial in Juneau, with its high concentration of plan participants; the complex technical nature of the claims; and the fact that the plaintiffs were seeking at least $2.8 billion in damages.



To contact the <em>aiCIO</em> editor of this story: Paula Vasan at <a href='mailto:pvasan@assetinternational.com'>pvasan@assetinternational.com</a>; 646-308-2742

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